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How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #31 by ofahn » January 2nd, 2013, 6:52 pm

osforlife wrote:If DD would have signed Melky Cabrera over Nate McLouth and a veteran starter already, the off-season would be complete and an A+.


I know you're a Melky fan and a one year deal might have made some sense, BUT; 1) WHICH Melky would have shown up? That becomes even more important on a two year deal; 2) This is only my opinion and I have no proof of it, but I believe that after the Palmiero fiasco and what came out about some of their players and PEDs the FO would have had to do some soul searching before they would have brought in another "cheater"; 3) I think Buck really believes in McLouth and sees him as a positive in the clubhouse, and IMO Nate will work very hard to justify that faith. This is a risky prediction, but I think McLouth will have a season worth far more than his salary.

osforlife wrote:The only FA starters I'd be willing to sign to major league deals with options would be Joe Saunders, Shaun Marcum, and MAYBE Jeff Karstens.


I think Saunders will be on our roster on Opening Day, particularly, if all the other teams only offer him one year. He was successful here and could see Baltimore as the place to completely rebuild his value. I would grit my teeth and smile if we ended up with Marcum.

osforlife wrote:Kyle Lohse would be really nice but he costs a draft pick so I don't think the club will do that.


I just don't see him as a good fit. He wants a multi year contract and we only need a veteran SP for one year.

osforlife wrote:Minor league deals towards Jair Jurrgens and Dallas Braden intrigue me.


As good a value as those signings would be I'm not sure that we have a place for them nor would those pitchers see us as a good place to rebuild their careers. If we sign Saunders (or another veteran SP) the ML rotation will be full and I'm assuming that our starting rotation at AAA will be Matusz, Britton, Arrieta, and Dylan Bundy. That leaves ONE spot for a SP and no realistic hope of fast tracking to Baltimore.

If we trade a couple of those Norfolk starters in the next few weeks then I could see reclamation projects making calls to the Orioles.
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #32 by osforlife » January 2nd, 2013, 9:11 pm

I would rather have Melky on a 1 year, $10mil deal. Make no mistake, McLouth was a solid pick-up, but Melky would be superior. I am pretty confident he will AT LEAST put up numbers close to his 2011 season.

Saunders is most likely the one that we will sign. But, Marcum is a better pitcher. Think about this; Marcum is better than Anibal Sanchez and we could get him for a FRACTION of what Sanchez got and for only one or two years. Why are you down on Marcum?

Kyle Lohse isn't the best fit for us, but I don't see a problem with signing a pitcher for two years. We can just trade Hammel instead of our one year deal starter.

I remember reading somewhere, I think from Roch, that Dylan Bundy is slated to start at AA with Gausman. So, at Bowie, there is Bundy, Bundy, Gausman, and Wright. That leaves room for one reclamation project. I see Arrieta, Matusz, Britton, Clark, and Pettit in the AAA rotation. Steve Johnson could also be in there if McFarland makes the bullpen. So I think we have room for one minor league deal.
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #33 by ofahn » January 2nd, 2013, 9:45 pm

osforlife wrote:I would rather have Melky on a 1 year, $10mil deal. Make no mistake, McLouth was a solid pick-up, but Melky would be superior. I am pretty confident he will AT LEAST put up numbers close to his 2011 season.


As I said, it's just a hunch I have about McLouth. I'm willing to make you another "good deed" that Nate puts up at least 80% of Melky's numbers this year.

osforlife wrote:Saunders is most likely the one that we will sign. But, Marcum is a better pitcher. Think about this; Marcum is better than Anibal Sanchez and we could get him for a FRACTION of what Sanchez got and for only one or two years. Why are you down on Marcum?


It's not that I don't like Marcum, it's that I have concerns about a fly ball pitcher in our park. I had my doubts about Saunders and he proved me wrong. Maybe Marcum would, too.

osforlife wrote:Kyle Lohse isn't the best fit for us, but I don't see a problem with signing a pitcher for two years. We can just trade Hammel instead of our one year deal starter.


I think the draft pick is the deal breaker. If we're going to give up #24 I would rather it be for LaRoche. We HAVE quality SP coming through the system. We DON'T HAVE run producing bats.

osforlife wrote:I remember reading somewhere, I think from Roch, that Dylan Bundy is slated to start at AA with Gausman. So, at Bowie, there is Bundy, Bundy, Gausman, and Wright. That leaves room for one reclamation project. I see Arrieta, Matusz, Britton, Clark, and Pettit in the AAA rotation. Steve Johnson could also be in there if McFarland makes the bullpen. So I think we have room for one minor league deal.


I could see Bundy Starting at AA. I just sent you a pitching depth chart I've been putting together for a post I want to do. It has Dylan at AAA, but I was waffling on that. I also have Pettit in the Bowie bullpen. His age and the surplus of legit SP prospects in our system IMO makes him a RP now. I agree that there might be room for one reclamation project, but keep in mind that the PROJECT has to believe he has a clear path to the ML or he'll look to sign somewhere else.
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #34 by osforlife » January 3rd, 2013, 5:37 pm

Well, you can't argue with gut feelings. But we also have to consider the fact that there is a good chance McLouth will only play against RHP, while Melky would play everyday. Playing against RHP only I see McLouth putting up something along the lines of: .255/.340/.450 and playing everyday: .240/.320/.410. I see Melky putting up: .300/.350/.500. McLouth will probably have more stolen bases and I'am not sure about Melky's defense but McLouth's is above-average.

I agree Lohse isn't a good fit but I'd be willing to sign Marcum to a two year deal, thus making Hammel available, expecting AT LEAST ONE of the non opening day starters push for a rotation spot.

When I made my reclamation project comment, I didn't entirely consider our depth or the willingness of that pitcher to sign. I just simply wanted to say they intriuged me. If we trade one of our starting pitcher though, I'd keep an eye on Jurrgens and Braden.
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #35 by ofahn » January 3rd, 2013, 6:07 pm

osforlife wrote:Well, you can't argue with gut feelings. But we also have to consider the fact that there is a good chance McLouth will only play against RHP, while Melky would play everyday. Playing against RHP only I see McLouth putting up something along the lines of: .255/.340/.450 and playing everyday: .240/.320/.410. I see Melky putting up: .300/.350/.500. McLouth will probably have more stolen bases and I'am not sure about Melky's defense but McLouth's is above-average.


I could see McLouth doing a .265/.350/.500 against RHP. Particularly, if he bats second or third in the order. If the other half of the platoon (Reimold) puts up similar numbers we would have solid production from LF.

osforlife wrote:I agree Lohse isn't a good fit but I'd be willing to sign Marcum to a two year deal, thus making Hammel available, expecting AT LEAST ONE of the non opening day starters push for a rotation spot.


I'm not sure that would work the way I think you're suggesting. Trading Hammel before ST would be at a discount because teams will want to see if his knee is sound and will hold up to some wear and tear. If we waited until after the season started we might not get fair value in return because any team the acquires him won't be able to make him a qualifying offer.

I know you like Marcum, but why sign ANY veteran SP to a two year contract at this point when we should have AT LEAST Dylan Bundy and Gausman ready to join the rotation in 2014, and might have one or more of Arrieta, Britton, or Matusz as well? Now, if we TRADE any of those guys then that's a WHOLE different story and we should sign one or more vets and/or reclamation projects.

osforlife wrote:When I made my reclamation project comment, I didn't entirely consider our depth or the willingness of that pitcher to sign. I just simply wanted to say they intriuged me. If we trade one of our starting pitcher though, I'd keep an eye on Jurrgens and Braden.


...and a few others.

When I read your comments I sometimes forget that you're in your middle teens. IMO you often make more sense than some others two and three times your age. Are you SURE you're not really in you mid forties and just look young for your age?
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #36 by osforlife » January 3rd, 2013, 6:27 pm

I was assuming we trade Hammel at the deadline or even before that; enough time to show his knee is okay.
Signing Marcum would allow us to trade Hammel. Maybe, we could even trade him. Ideally, a one year contract would be better, but we could always trade Hammel & Marcum.

Jonathan Sanchez and Dice-K also come to mind when I think of reclamation projects.

Lol, nope not faking! Freshman in highschool!
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #37 by A_K » January 17th, 2013, 12:32 pm

Add Mike Napoli for one year and $5 million to the list of contracts the Orioles should have been happy to give out.
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #38 by birdwatcher55 » January 17th, 2013, 1:06 pm

Napoli appears to be damaged goods. That contract would never get past Dr. Angelos :lol:
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #39 by ofahn » January 17th, 2013, 3:38 pm

A_K wrote:Add Mike Napoli for one year and $5 million to the list of contracts the Orioles should have been happy to give out.


I'm not sure that a fair criticism. The ORIGINAL deal was for 3/39M and was a JOKE! When the hip issue came up the renegotiation started. I heard on SiriusXM MLB this morning that Texas had recently offered a bigger one year deal and he turned that down to accept the Boston deal. He wasn't signing here.
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #40 by A_K » January 17th, 2013, 3:44 pm

That's fine. I'm not really criticizing them. I can take or leave Napoli or just about anyone else. But if I'm looking around the MLB landscape at all the contracts that have been given, this is one of the ones that would make me say "I'd be happy if the O's had made that deal."

Damaged goods on a three-year deal is bad news. Damaged goods on a one-year deal isn't. Nice pick up for Boston.
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #41 by ofahn » January 17th, 2013, 4:18 pm

A_K wrote:I'm looking around the MLB landscape at all the contracts that have been given, this is one of the ones that would make me say "I'd be happy if the O's had made that deal."


Maybe, and this is just a guess, he picked Boston because HE THINKS they're going to let him catch. A one year deal would let him build value there. WE MOST CERTAINLY weren't going to let him catch.
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #42 by Seafordeagles » January 17th, 2013, 4:35 pm

Man that's a lot of money to lose, and that hip cost Napoli 34 million dollars. I'd be sick over 34 bucks. I know he's got to be hurting inside about losing more money than he could probably ever spend.
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #43 by A_K » January 17th, 2013, 4:54 pm

ofahn wrote:
Maybe, and this is just a guess, he picked Boston because HE THINKS they're going to let him catch. A one year deal would let him build value there. WE MOST CERTAINLY weren't going to let him catch.


Like I said, I'm not faulting anyone. THere are two sides to a deal. Napoli is a human with free will who can choose to do any number of things. Maybe it's because they'll let him catch, maybe because he likes clam chowder over crab soup, maybe he hates Baltimore, maybe maybe maybe. I'm uninterested, and I'm uninterested primarily because I am not offering criticism of the front office or anyone else.

I'm making the inoffensive statement that I view a 1 year, $5 million contract as good value for Mike Napoli. If the Orioles had been able to make that deal happen (in a parallel universe, in this universe, or otherwise), I would be a happen person.

That's all. If you're going to ask people what acquisitions or trades they've seen that they would have liked to see the Orioles do, you can't go back and point out the dozen hypothetical or anecdotal reasons those deals wouldn't work.
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #44 by Old Sneakers » January 17th, 2013, 5:08 pm

D+/C-

My reasoning like the others is no significant ground was gained. Did I want or expect a fire sale? No. Of course not. However, the team could have moved an arm and picked up a sound position player still working his way through the minors that would allow the team to strengthen a weakness.

Personally I am a DD supporter and think last year he did a sound but unspectacular job last off season. This year, he appears to have done a great deal less. Am I being pessimistic? Yes, I do not see the 2013 Orioles being better than one or two games over .500

The real hope is that once again the bullpen remains a team strength. Young SP really comes on strong and is far more consistent. Otherwise my opinion will likely hold true. So far the few things the team has done is keep it's draft intact and not overspend in free agency. Some of these contracts look absolutely silly to my eyes. That said, whilst no significant upgrades were made. More could have been done.
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Re: How Would You Rate The Orioles’ Off Season So Far?

PostPost #45 by Seafordeagles » January 17th, 2013, 5:13 pm

Old Sneakers wrote:D+/C-

My reasoning like the others is no significant ground was gained. Did I want or expect a fire sale? No. Of course not. However, the team could have moved an arm and picked up a sound position player still working his way through the minors that would allow the team to strengthen a weakness.

Personally I am a DD supporter and think last year he did a sound but unspectacular job last off season. This year, he appears to have done a great deal less. Am I being pessimistic? Yes, I do not see the 2013 Orioles being better than one or two games over .500

The real hope is that once again the bullpen remains a team strength. Young SP really comes on strong and is far more consistent. Otherwise my opinion will likely hold true. So far the few things the team has done is keep it's draft intact and not overspend in free agency. Some of these contracts look absolutely silly to my eyes. That said, whilst no significant upgrades were made. More could have been done.


Here's a quote from today's press conference:

"If you watch carefully, and I know you did, we built our team last year over the whole year," he said. "When we had an opportunity to improve the team, we seized on it, if it made economic sense, so I can tell you this past offseason, we have had umpteen trade proposals from teams that like our young players, OK? Our young players are very valuable, but we like our young players. We're glad they're returning, so we have some opportunities between now, and the time we break, so we'll look at it, but I've got to tell you, I like this ballclub. I like the pitching staff. I like the stability we have in our pitching staff, starting with our bullpen, which was a strength of the team, and they're all coming back. They're a year older with more experience."

Here's the link to the whole article on MASN:

http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roc ... rence.html


Looks like a lot of teams were interested in our young pitchers.
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