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Why do the O's need to make a move?

Re: Why do the O's need to make a move?

PostPost #31 by BuckMagic » December 17th, 2012, 3:34 pm

A_K wrote:There hasn't been a move yet where I've thought, "Wow, ______ got great value on that acquisition. I really wish the O's had made that move." I think Dempster was a good acquisition by the Red Sox and I would have liked it if the O's made that move, but I'm really not too broken up that it didn't happen. If the Angels are willing to move Bourjos, I would have rather the O's done that than re-sign McLouth... though I also didn't have any problem with McLouth's contract and don't yet know what Bourjos might cost. I would have been happy to see the O's give McCarthy the same contract he got from Arizona. None of this is forcing me to lose any sleep.

I'm pretty unsatisfied with the 2B options, and am very much in support of a hypothetical mystery trade that would bring in something other than the four Robert Andinos they have right now. I'd like to see them add a hypothetical mid-order bat who could DH or, even better, play 1B so Davis can DH. But I have no real targets in mind for either of those acquisitions, mostly because I have no idea who's available via trade, so it's tough for me to get too worked up.

4 Andinos...! Love it. :D

The Dempster deal isn't terrible...not sure how he'll do in the AL EAst though. That would have been solid for O's but as you said nothing to get angry about.
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Re: Why do the O's need to make a move?

PostPost #32 by osforlife » December 17th, 2012, 5:47 pm

My opinion is Dempster is gonna get killed in the American League and in Fenway Park. I would not have made that deal. The Bluejays likely recieved good value out of Melky Cabrera..I would have liked the O's to make that deal maybe at like 1 year, 10mil. We still need to get a 5th starter...I was thinking about making a thread about the potential free agent starters to get. I don't want the Orioles to make a move just to make a move.
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Re: Why do the O's need to make a move?

PostPost #33 by Seafordeagles » December 17th, 2012, 6:51 pm

osforlife wrote:My opinion is Dempster is gonna get killed in the American League and in Fenway Park. I would not have made that deal. The Bluejays likely recieved good value out of Melky Cabrera..I would have liked the O's to make that deal maybe at like 1 year, 10mil. We still need to get a 5th starter...I was thinking about making a thread about the potential free agent starters to get. I don't want the Orioles to make a move just to make a move.


How do you feel about re-signing Saunders?
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Re: Why do the O's need to make a move?

PostPost #34 by dan72 » December 17th, 2012, 6:54 pm

I am not in favor of signing Hamilton, however I think you are kidding yourselves if you think that our line up and our pitching will continue to remain competitive. Last season was a lightning in a bottle season. I do think that we should be closer to a .500 team in 2013 if the roster doesn't change going into the season. We need offense if we are going to compete with Toronto, Detroit, Rangers, and Angels. Our pitching is middle of the road at best.
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Re: Why do the O's need to make a move?

PostPost #35 by A_K » December 17th, 2012, 6:59 pm

Actually I totally forgot about the Melky deal. Yes, I would have loved to see the O's make that move, and it pisses me off that they didn't.

I don't see any evidence in Dempster's numbers that he'll struggle in the AL East.
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Re: Why do the O's need to make a move?

PostPost #36 by osforlife » December 17th, 2012, 7:38 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:
How do you feel about re-signing Saunders?

Yes Saunders...or somebody similiar to him.
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Re: Why do the O's need to make a move?

PostPost #37 by osforlife » December 17th, 2012, 7:47 pm

A_K wrote:Actually I totally forgot about the Melky deal. Yes, I would have loved to see the O's make that move, and it pisses me off that they didn't.

I don't see any evidence in Dempster's numbers that he'll struggle in the AL East.

Melky would have been great, certainly better than McLouth. We probably could have gotten him on a one year deal too. I'am surpised the Orioles were never even mentioned at looking at Melky. I was thinking along the lines of:
1.) Dempster is going into his age 36 season.
2.) He struggled in the AL pitching for the Rangers.
3.) He will be pitching in Fenway Park half the year...no stat guru here but his H/9 and HR/9 will jump won't they?
4.) He had an ERA of 4.80 in 2011.
5.) A little bit of a gut feeling.
All little intangibles.
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Re: Why do the O's need to make a move?

PostPost #38 by A_K » December 17th, 2012, 8:43 pm

Went over to Fangraphs to poke around Dempster's numbers for signs of due regression in the league's best division, and lo and behold Dave Cameron had already written an article on this very subject. Rather than recite the stats I'll just post it.

I don't think you're entirely wrong though. There are reasons for concern on a 36-year-old pitcher whose numbers jumped when he switched to the AL. I just don't think the risk is quite that large, and it's easily tempered by the fact that the contract is reasonable and only two-years.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... l-pitcher/
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Re: Why do the O's need to make a move?

PostPost #39 by Jordan Tuwiner » December 17th, 2012, 9:14 pm

A_K wrote:Went over to Fangraphs to poke around Dempster's numbers for signs of due regression in the league's best division, and lo and behold Dave Cameron had already written an article on this very subject. Rather than recite the stats I'll just post it.

I don't think you're entirely wrong though. There are reasons for concern on a 36-year-old pitcher whose numbers jumped when he switched to the AL. I just don't think the risk is quite that large, and it's easily tempered by the fact that the contract is reasonable and only two-years.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... l-pitcher/

Thanks for posting that. This pretty much sums up what Cameron had to say:

Headed into his age-36 season, Dempster is almost certainly on the downside of his career, and can be expected to get a little worse just from natural aging. It’s probably safter to project him as an average pitcher for the next few years rather than an above average one. But, there’s really no reason to think that he’s just going to find the AL East so inhospitable that he’s incapable of getting hitters out, or that there’s any real evidence that pitchers without big time stuff fall apart once they have to face the Yankees a few times each year. Adjusting for quality of competition and the differences between leagues is one thing; pretending that there’s a gap so large that pitchers can’t successfully move from the NL to AL East is just not representative of reality, however.

I think that is reasonable.
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Re: Why do the O's need to make a move?

PostPost #40 by Matt P » December 17th, 2012, 10:37 pm

A_K wrote:Went over to Fangraphs to poke around Dempster's numbers for signs of due regression in the league's best division, and lo and behold Dave Cameron had already written an article on this very subject. Rather than recite the stats I'll just post it.

I don't think you're entirely wrong though. There are reasons for concern on a 36-year-old pitcher whose numbers jumped when he switched to the AL. I just don't think the risk is quite that large, and it's easily tempered by the fact that the contract is reasonable and only two-years.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... l-pitcher/

I think everyone in baseball knows last season was a fluke for him and he won't last in the AL.
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Re: Why do the O's need to make a move?

PostPost #41 by A_K » December 18th, 2012, 12:32 pm

... I can think of at least one person in baseball who doesn't think that...
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Re: Why do the O's need to make a move?

PostPost #42 by osforlife » December 18th, 2012, 3:15 pm

A_K wrote:Went over to Fangraphs to poke around Dempster's numbers for signs of due regression in the league's best division, and lo and behold Dave Cameron had already written an article on this very subject. Rather than recite the stats I'll just post it.

I don't think you're entirely wrong though. There are reasons for concern on a 36-year-old pitcher whose numbers jumped when he switched to the AL. I just don't think the risk is quite that large, and it's easily tempered by the fact that the contract is reasonable and only two-years.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... l-pitcher/

Thanks for posting. Good read. I think we will definitely see regression, maybe not as much as I initially thought.
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