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Brian Matusz Permanent Bullpen Addition

Re: Brian Matusz Permanent Bullpen Addition

PostPost #31 by thezeroes » October 31st, 2012, 9:55 pm

If a pitcher goes six innings and gives up 3 Earned Runs this would qualify for a Quality Start. If this pitcher did that for thirty starts and got a QS for each start he would end up with an ERA of 4.50. This would be deemed a success by the standards established for "The Quality Start". Just Saying
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Re: Brian Matusz Permanent Bullpen Addition

PostPost #32 by Matt P » October 31st, 2012, 9:58 pm

thezeroes wrote:If a pitcher goes six innings and gives up 3 Earned Runs this would qualify for a Quality Start. If this pitcher did that for thirty starts and got a QS for each start he would end up with an ERA of 4.50. This would be deemed a success by the standards established for "The Quality Start". Just Saying

Your argument for him being deemed a success is the exact same argument that many stat people use to show that quality starts is not a good stat.
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Re: Brian Matusz Permanent Bullpen Addition

PostPost #33 by Jordan Tuwiner » October 31st, 2012, 10:00 pm

Matt P wrote:He's never pitched a full season with an ERA under 4.30 as a starter. Not sure how a 4.30 ERA is "very successful". He did have a very successful finish to his 2010 season but not a full season.

You wouldn't call Matusz's rookie season a success? 4.05 FIP, solid 7.33 K/9, less than 3 BB/9, and 2.8 fWAR.
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Re: Brian Matusz Permanent Bullpen Addition

PostPost #34 by Matt P » October 31st, 2012, 10:02 pm

Jordan Tuwiner wrote:You wouldn't call Matusz's rookie season a success? 4.05 FIP, solid 7.33 K/9, less than 3 BB/9, and 2.8 fWAR.

He started 8 games that year.
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Re: Brian Matusz Permanent Bullpen Addition

PostPost #35 by Jordan Tuwiner » October 31st, 2012, 10:03 pm

Matt P wrote:He started 8 games that year.

He started 32. I'm talking about 2010.
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Re: Brian Matusz Permanent Bullpen Addition

PostPost #36 by thezeroes » October 31st, 2012, 10:06 pm

Matt P wrote:Your argument for him being deemed a success is the exact same argument that many stat people use to show that quality starts is not a good stat.


Not saying he was a success but stating that by the standards of the quality start he exceeded the 4.50 ERA threshold. Personally I think they should add an inning to the Quality Start and make it seven innings pitched and three earned runs or less as this would work out to an era of 3.86 and have a better yardstick to measure by.
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Re: Brian Matusz Permanent Bullpen Addition

PostPost #37 by Matt P » October 31st, 2012, 10:08 pm

Jordan Tuwiner wrote:He started 32. I'm talking about 2010.

I'm not saying it was bad I'm just saying I don't think it was a "very successful full season".

His ERA was over 5 before he got on that run at the end of the season for 8 or 9 games and everyone started thinking he could be an Ace or a solid #2 starting pitcher.
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Re: Brian Matusz Permanent Bullpen Addition

PostPost #38 by Matt P » October 31st, 2012, 10:09 pm

thezeroes wrote:
Not saying he was a success but stating that by the standards of the quality start he exceeded the 4.50 ERA threshold. Personally I think they should add an inning to the Quality Start and make it seven innings pitched and three earned runs or less as this would work out to an era of 3.86 and have a better yardstick to measure by.

I agree.
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Re: Brian Matusz Permanent Bullpen Addition

PostPost #39 by Jordan Tuwiner » October 31st, 2012, 10:12 pm

Matt P wrote:I'm not saying it was bad I'm just saying I don't think it was a "very successful full season".

His ERA was over 5 before he got on that run at the end of the season for 8 or 9 games and everyone started thinking he could be an Ace or a solid #2 starting pitcher.

I would call it pretty successful. His rookie FIP- was better than the rookie FIP- of Madison Bumgarner, Zach Britton, Matt Moore, Tommy Milone, and even Wei-Yin Chen.

Plus, you can't just hand select a number of starts to throw away when it comes to a season's worth of data.
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Re: Brian Matusz Permanent Bullpen Addition

PostPost #40 by Matt P » October 31st, 2012, 10:19 pm

Jordan Tuwiner wrote:I would call it pretty successful. His rookie FIP- was better than the rookie FIP- of Madison Bumgarner, Zach Britton, Matt Moore, Tommy Milone, and even Wei-Yin Chen.

Plus, you can't just hand select a number of starts to throw away when it comes to a season's worth of data.

All I am saying is that I don't think it was a full season of being very successful. He wasn't very successful for the full season, just for 8 or 9 starts (forget the exact number). Why can't we select a number of starts when it comes to judging a full season to determine if the entire season was a success?
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Re: Brian Matusz Permanent Bullpen Addition

PostPost #41 by Jordan Tuwiner » October 31st, 2012, 10:34 pm

Matt P wrote:All I am saying is that I don't think it was a full season of being very successful. He wasn't very successful for the full season, just for 8 or 9 starts (forget the exact number). Why can't we select a number of starts when it comes to judging a full season to determine if the entire season was a success?

Should we throw away a random hot streak the Orioles had this season?

Maybe the entire season was not filled with success, but I would call the season as a whole very successful.
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Re: Brian Matusz Permanent Bullpen Addition

PostPost #42 by Matt P » October 31st, 2012, 10:40 pm

Jordan Tuwiner wrote:Should we throw away a random hot streak the Orioles had this season?

Maybe the entire season was not filled with success, but I would call the season as a whole very successful.

I would consider a teams success and a pitcher who pitches every fifth day's success two entirely different subjects.
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Re: Brian Matusz Permanent Bullpen Addition

PostPost #43 by ofahn » October 31st, 2012, 10:40 pm

thezeroes wrote:Personally I think they should add an inning to the Quality Start and make it seven innings pitched and three earned runs or less as this would work out to an era of 3.86 and have a better yardstick to measure by.


I have always felt that should be the standard for seven innings and four runs should be the standard for eight.
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Re: Brian Matusz Permanent Bullpen Addition

PostPost #44 by Jordan Tuwiner » November 1st, 2012, 10:03 am

Matt P wrote:I would consider a teams success and a pitcher who pitches every fifth day's success two entirely different subjects.

The point is you can't just exclude those outings because they came at the end of the season. Would you think differently if those 8 or 9 outings had come in the middle of the year?
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Re: Brian Matusz Permanent Bullpen Addition

PostPost #45 by ofahn » November 1st, 2012, 10:48 am

Jordan Tuwiner wrote:The point is you can't just exclude those outings because they came at the end of the season. Would you think differently if those 8 or 9 outings had come in the middle of the year?


What impressed me about that stretch in late 2010 was that he strung a bunch of them together, and some against the same team more than once. IMO he HAS the talent, he just needs to believe in that talent. I wonder if it's a coincidence that Matusz and Tillman, who are good friends, half the same insecurities?
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