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Now that I stopped drinking the kool aid

Now that I stopped drinking the kool aid

PostPost #1 by Matt P » October 14th, 2012, 8:59 am

After reading Kubatko's post yesterday about Showalter and reading his quote about not drinking the kool aid and realizing what the team needs to improve on for next year a few things came to mind.

First thing was on the Baseball Today podcast many weeks ago Mark Simon said that Buck told him after everywhere he went had a huge improvement he never went into the next season thinking they were set and knew what they needed to do. He said he had no reason to not expect the O's to make some big changes going into next season.

Second thing was that it is possible to upgrade at 1B, 2B, SS/3B (depends on what they do with Machado), LF, and SP. Now, I don't know that there are going to be upgrades available for all of those positions (or that they can afford them) but they can upgrade everyone of them going into next year.
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Re: Now that I stopped drinking the kool aid

PostPost #2 by Jordan Tuwiner » October 14th, 2012, 11:44 am

Matt P wrote:After reading Kubatko's post yesterday about Showalter and reading his quote about not drinking the kool aid and realizing what the team needs to improve on for next year a few things came to mind.

First thing was on the Baseball Today podcast many weeks ago Mark Simon said that Buck told him after everywhere he went had a huge improvement he never went into the next season thinking they were set and knew what they needed to do. He said he had no reason to not expect the O's to make some big changes going into next season.

Second thing was that it is possible to upgrade at 1B, 2B, SS/3B (depends on what they do with Machado), LF, and SP. Now, I don't know that there are going to be upgrades available for all of those positions (or that they can afford them) but they can upgrade everyone of them going into next year.

What would you do to upgrade 1B? Leave Chris Davis as DH and acquire a 1B somehow?
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Re: Now that I stopped drinking the kool aid

PostPost #3 by OriolesRedskins28 » October 14th, 2012, 11:55 am

I don't think you need to upgrade at SS or 3B (assuming Machado sticks at 3B). Hardy was a 3 win player this year despite his down offensive year and Machado racked up 1.3 WAR in only 51 games.

They have plenty of options at LF in Mclouth, Reimold, and Avery/Hoes (with C Davis and Betemit having the potential to fill in), I would imagine someone in that group of players can be a solid all around left fielder.

Personally I'm happy with Reynolds at 1B, his ability to save errors is crucial and he should have a better year offensively. That being said they could definitely do better overall than Reynolds at first.

Second base is the biggest issue to me. Unless they think Ryan Flaherty can be the guy, they need to find a decent second baseman because Roberts and Andino aren't good enough to play every day.

A #1 starter would be nice but you have to like the SP depth compared to this time last year. Hammel, Chen, Tillman, and Gonzalez look like locks for the rotation with Britton, Arrieta, Matusz, and S Johnson all potential candidates for the number 5 spot (not to mention Bundy waiting in the wings).

The team got much better as the year went on. The defense improved greatly and the patchwork rotation that sometimes included guys like Tommy Hunter and Dana Eveland turned into a fairly dependable group. I don't think THAT much needs to be done in the offseason, a few minor moves could be enough to solidify the team.
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Re: Now that I stopped drinking the kool aid

PostPost #4 by Jordan Tuwiner » October 14th, 2012, 11:58 am

It may feel like not much is going to be done, but I think we are going to see at least three trades.
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Re: Now that I stopped drinking the kool aid

PostPost #5 by OriolesRedskins28 » October 14th, 2012, 12:00 pm

Jordan Tuwiner wrote:It may feel like not much is going to be done, but I think we are going to see at least three trades.


Think there will be a block buster mixed in there or just small stuff? I could definitely see them acquiring a Saunders like SP for cheap like Duquette said in a recent interview.
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Re: Now that I stopped drinking the kool aid

PostPost #6 by Matt P » October 14th, 2012, 12:02 pm

Jordan Tuwiner wrote:What would you do to upgrade 1B? Leave Chris Davis as DH and acquire a 1B somehow?

I don't know. I like Mark Reynolds and was one of the first to say bring him back next year. But there has to be a better option out there right? Like if they could get Chase Headley he can play 1B, or 3B. He would be an upgrade at either position.
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Re: Now that I stopped drinking the kool aid

PostPost #7 by OriolesRedskins28 » October 14th, 2012, 12:06 pm

Matt P wrote: Like if they could get Chase Headley he can play 1B, or 3B. He would be an upgrade at either position.


Should have gotten Chase Headley at the deadline when they had the chance. His price tag is probably huge after the season he just had in Petco.
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Re: Now that I stopped drinking the kool aid

PostPost #8 by Matt P » October 14th, 2012, 12:07 pm

OriolesRedskins28 wrote:
Should have gotten Chase Headley at the deadline when they had the chance. His price tag is probably huge after the season he just had in Petco.


Exactly. I remember arguing with a certain someone on here that it would be stupid to wait until the off season to try and trade for him.

People think that Machado turned this team around. Well, imagine if they acquired Headley who is both a better defender and hitter than Machado.
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Re: Now that I stopped drinking the kool aid

PostPost #9 by ofahn » October 14th, 2012, 4:46 pm

Matt P wrote:I remember arguing with a certain someone on here that it would be stupid to wait until the off season to try and trade for him.


Being that certain someone I feel better now about not making that trade. My concerns at the time were that this wasn't a championship caliber team (it wasn't); that Headley wasn't a "difference maker" but rather a complimentary player in a position we had a big hole in (he improved as the season went on); that we couldn't afford to give up THEN and for the future the pitching they were asking for (who can HONESTLY say they saw the impact that Saunders, Miguel Gonzalez, and Steve Johnson would make on this team?); that we would be selling low (the resurrection of Matusz has been amazing and I still believe that he and Britton have the POTENTIAL of being #2 SPs in the near future); and that we couldn't afford to give up any of the few legitimate prospects we had in our farm system (saving guys like Delmonico or Bridwell to trade, if necessary, for the player that will legitimately get us to the point of being a championship team).

Over the last thirty days I have seen two lines of discussion in the baseball world. First, that SD will keep Headley. Sorry, don't believe it. They want and need young SP and don't have the money to buy it even if it were available for sale. Sure, they could buy a couple of free agent SPs for a reasonable price on one year contracts, but that won't solve their problems long term. Only making a trade will. What does SD have to trade? Headley. Are they going to get a Gio Gonzales return for him? No, because he doesn't have as much value and the demand is much smaller.

I posted this on July 12th. Very little has changed since then.

Let's look at which teams NEED a 3B.

Boston - NOPE, they are happy with Middlebrooks.
Yankees - NOPE, Arod.
Tampa - Nope, Longoria.
Toronto - NOPE.
White Sox - Probably not. They'll give strong consideration to bringing back Youkilis.
Detroit - NOPE, Cabrera.
Cleveland - Maybe, but they have other holes to fill so they probably won't be willing to pay a premium for Headley.
KC - NOPE, Moustakas.
Minnesota - Maybe, but they have Trevor Plouffe that can play there and they also have too many holes to pay a premium for a position they can fill from within.
Angels - Maybe, but their farm system is almost dry and they have Callaspo to play there.
Oakland - Probably, but they're a team that looks for a bargain so I doubt they are willing to outbid anyone for a player. They also have Stephen Parker at AAA that they might want to give a chance before they "outsource".
Seattle - NOPE, they'll give Kyle Seeger a chance to show whether he should keep the job.
Atlanta - Maybe, because Chipper will retire, but they my want to allow Juan Fransico to earn the job.
Miami - NOPE, Ramirez. This changed and they are now in the market; however, I don't see them using up their limited prospects to fill just one hole.
Mets - NOPE, Wright.
Washington - NOPE, Zimmerman.
Cubs - Maybe, but they might allow Josh Vitters to show whether he's a ML player.
Reds - NOPE, Rolen's at the end of his string but Todd Frazier has been a solid player at 3B and will probably go into ST with job as his to lose.
Houston - NOPE, they have Chris Johnson and won't be paying a premium for any player while they're rebuilding. This has cahnged since they traded Johnson to AZ; however, I don't see them using up their limited prospects to fill just one hole.
Milwaukee - NOPE, Aramis Ramirez.
Pirates - NOPE, Pedro Alvarez.
Cards - NOPE, Freese.
Dodgers - Now THIS is a team that will need a 3B and don't have a ready prospect in their system; however, San Diego would probably prefer to trade outside of their division and league if they thought the offers were roughly the same. They traded for Ramirez. Probably set there now and I don't see SD trading with the Dodgers if another team makes them a similar offer, nor do I see LA paying the Padres a premium of young players.
Giants - Nope, Sandoval.
Arizona - This is a team that will need to find a 3B, but they may give Matt Davidson a shot in ST. AND they probably won't want to pay a premium to block Davidson if he's not ready in the Spring, AND San Diego would probably prefer to trade outside of their division and league if they thought the offers were roughly the same. They traded for Chris Johnson.
Colorado - Also a team that needs a 3B, but they have some in house solutions for 2013 and probably won't want to pay a premium to block Nolan Arenado who may be ML ready in mid 2013, AND San Diego would probably prefer to trade outside of their division and league if they thought the offers were roughly the same.
Phillies - add them to the list of buyers for a 3B; however, I don't see them using up their limited prospects to fill just one hole.

There's one more thing to consider: the Padres almost HAVE to trade Headley this Winter to open a spot for Jedd Gyorko. If they keep Headley once Gyorko takes over 3B they will have to move Headley to the OF where his trade value will be reduced by at least half.


I posted this on July 29th.

With all of the hysteria around acquiring Headley it 's apparently lost in the hoopla that THE PADRES DON'T REALLY HAVE A MARKET LEFT FOR HIM AND ALMOST HAVE TO TRADE HIM NOW TO EVEN GET HIS REAL VALUE. They can want Machado. They can want Bundy. They can want six weeks in a clothing optional hot tub with Kate Upton but that doesn't mean the market is there for them to get what they want.

The Dodgers were the team that MIGHT have given a top 100 SP (Lee), but they're out of the game now. The Diamondbacks got Johnson from the Astros. The Pirates are finally figuring that they don't have a spot for him and the Indians are now looking at becoming sellers. The two teams left standing are the Orioles and As. The As have a tradition of NOT overpaying for players and are probably thinking (as I hope DD is) that they will be competing with us this Winter for Headley at a much lower price IF the Padres hold on to him because the premium he could generate this season ENDS on July 31st.


With the emergence of Gonzales, Tillman, Dylan Bundy, and Gausman; along with the resurrection of Matusz and the expected recovery of Britton we now have pitching we can consider trading for the right piece. Thi is particulary true if we resign Saunders and trade our competitive balance draft pick for Jake Peavy. That would give us one more year of development time for our young pitchers. The Padres need young SP. Really, whom else besides us has a surplus that we can afford to trade? The only one I can think of is the As, maybe; and I don't think they'll pay a premium.

The second line of discussion is that SD is serious about competing next year. If that's true then I could see them showing interest in a package of Hardy, Matusz or Gonzalez, and an OF prospect for Headley. If they want more then I would tell them "good luck". They will need a solid SS and several young SPs. We can help them fill two holes. If they want more then I might offer some of Hardy's salary so they can buy a SP, but I wouldn't give up more talent.
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Re: Now that I stopped drinking the kool aid

PostPost #10 by osforlife » October 14th, 2012, 5:03 pm

ofahn wrote:
Being that certain someone I feel better now about not making that trade. My concerns at the time were that this wasn't a championship caliber team (it wasn't); that Headley wasn't a "difference maker" but rather a complimentary player in a position we had a big hole in (he improved as the season went on); that we couldn't afford to give up THEN and for the future the pitching they were asking for (who can HONESTLY say they saw the impact that Saunders, Miguel Gonzalez, and Steve Johnson would make on this team?); that we would be selling low (the resurrection of Matusz has been amazing and I still believe that he and Britton have the POTENTIAL of being #2 SPs in the near future); and that we couldn't afford to give up any of the few legitimate prospects we had in our farm system (saving guys like Delmonico or Bridwell to trade, if necessary, for the player that will legitimately get us to the point of being a championship team).

Over the last thirty days I have seen two lines of discussion in the baseball world. First, that SD will keep Headley. Sorry, don't believe it. They want and need young SP and don't have the money to buy it even if it were available for sale. Sure, they could buy a couple of free agent SPs for a reasonable price on one year contracts, but that won't solve their problems long term. Only making a trade will. What does SD have to trade? Headley. Are they going to get a Gio Gonzales return for him? No, because he doesn't have as much value and the demand is much smaller.

I posted this on July 12th. Very little has changed since then.



I posted this on July 29th.



With the emergence of Gonzales, Tillman, Dylan Bundy, and Gausman; along with the resurrection of Matusz and the expected recovery of Britton we now have pitching we can consider trading for the right piece. Thi is particulary true if we resign Saunders and trade our competitive balance draft pick for Jake Peavy. That would give us one more year of development time for our young pitchers. The Padres need young SP. Really, whom else besides us has a surplus that we can afford to trade? The only one I can think of is the As, maybe; and I don't think they'll pay a premium.

The second line of discussion is that SD is serious about competing next year. If that's true then I could see them showing interest in a package of Hardy, Matusz or Gonzalez, and an OF prospect for Headley. If they want more then I would tell them "good luck". They will need a solid SS and several young SPs. We can help them fill two holes. If they want more then I might offer some of Hardy's salary so they can buy a SP, but I wouldn't give up more talent.

Would Hardy, Matusz, Avery, and our compensation pick get it done?
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Re: Now that I stopped drinking the kool aid

PostPost #11 by ofahn » October 14th, 2012, 5:06 pm

osforlife wrote:Would Hardy, Matusz, Avery, and our compensation pick get it done?


The DEFINITIVE answer is ..... MAYBE. It depends on whether SD is serious about competing next year.

Frankly, I would prefer to use the pick to trade for Peavy if we could work that out. IF we have to give SD a LITTLE bit more I would rather it be money instead of talent (or the ability to acquire talent).
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Re: Now that I stopped drinking the kool aid

PostPost #12 by Matt P » October 14th, 2012, 8:58 pm

ofahn wrote:
Being that certain someone I feel better now about not making that trade. My concerns at the time were that this wasn't a championship caliber team (it wasn't); that Headley wasn't a "difference maker" but rather a complimentary player in a position we had a big hole in (he improved as the season went on); that we couldn't afford to give up THEN and for the future the pitching they were asking for (who can HONESTLY say they saw the impact that Saunders, Miguel Gonzalez, and Steve Johnson would make on this team?); that we would be selling low (the resurrection of Matusz has been amazing and I still believe that he and Britton have the POTENTIAL of being #2 SPs in the near future); and that we couldn't afford to give up any of the few legitimate prospects we had in our farm system (saving guys like Delmonico or Bridwell to trade, if necessary, for the player that will legitimately get us to the point of being a championship team).

Over the last thirty days I have seen two lines of discussion in the baseball world. First, that SD will keep Headley. Sorry, don't believe it. They want and need young SP and don't have the money to buy it even if it were available for sale. Sure, they could buy a couple of free agent SPs for a reasonable price on one year contracts, but that won't solve their problems long term. Only making a trade will. What does SD have to trade? Headley. Are they going to get a Gio Gonzales return for him? No, because he doesn't have as much value and the demand is much smaller.

I posted this on July 12th. Very little has changed since then.



I posted this on July 29th.



With the emergence of Gonzales, Tillman, Dylan Bundy, and Gausman; along with the resurrection of Matusz and the expected recovery of Britton we now have pitching we can consider trading for the right piece. Thi is particulary true if we resign Saunders and trade our competitive balance draft pick for Jake Peavy. That would give us one more year of development time for our young pitchers. The Padres need young SP. Really, whom else besides us has a surplus that we can afford to trade? The only one I can think of is the As, maybe; and I don't think they'll pay a premium.

The second line of discussion is that SD is serious about competing next year. If that's true then I could see them showing interest in a package of Hardy, Matusz or Gonzalez, and an OF prospect for Headley. If they want more then I would tell them "good luck". They will need a solid SS and several young SPs. We can help them fill two holes. If they want more then I might offer some of Hardy's salary so they can buy a SP, but I wouldn't give up more talent.


The addition of Machado shored up the defense and is what helped this team go from a .500 team to an elite team. Headley is a better defender and better hitter than Machado. Arrieta and Matusz have looked good out of the pen but that is out of the pen not as starters. If they had Headley I am pretty confident they are playing in the ALCS.
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Re: Now that I stopped drinking the kool aid

PostPost #13 by Matt P » October 14th, 2012, 8:59 pm

ofahn wrote:
The DEFINITIVE answer is ..... MAYBE. It depends on whether SD is serious about competing next year.

Frankly, I would prefer to use the pick to trade for Peavy if we could work that out. IF we have to give SD a LITTLE bit more I would rather it be money instead of talent (or the ability to acquire talent).


I don't think they would want Hardy when the reason for getting rid of Headley is salary related.
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Re: Now that I stopped drinking the kool aid

PostPost #14 by ofahn » October 14th, 2012, 9:39 pm

Matt P wrote:
I don't think they would want Hardy when the reason for getting rid of Headley is salary related.


A trade wouldn't be about "getting rid of" Headley, it would be about filling holes in their lineup. If money is an issue we could include some instead of a third player.
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Re: Now that I stopped drinking the kool aid

PostPost #15 by ofahn » October 14th, 2012, 9:49 pm

Matt P wrote:If they had Headley I am pretty confident they are playing in the ALCS.


What do you base that on?
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