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Rational Exuberance and the 2012 Orioles

Rational Exuberance and the 2012 Orioles

PostPost #1 by Tucker Blair » September 21st, 2012, 11:53 am

http://orioles-nation.com/2012/09/19/ra ... 2-orioles/

Dan Sanchez wrote a column a day or two ago. Great read

I woke up this morning to find the article I’d been hoping to avoid for some time now.

In his guest column for Baseball Prospectus, The Agony of Rational Rooting, Nick Piecoro gives voice to a nagging feeling he’s had – that, despite how enjoyable it may be to see a struggling team’s fanbase re-energized, the Baltimore Orioles’ 2012 season doesn’t seem earned.

I’ve been fearing this article not because I thought it would anger me, but because I knew it would force me to confront the same unconscious debate I’ve been having with myself.

On this website I’ve discussed the role of randomness in baseball in a column called “O Fortuna.” In it, I’ve analyzed small sample sizes, the unsustainable trends that result from them, and the expected regression to the mean. It’s a topic that’s long been a favorite of those interested in objective analysis of the game.

My purpose in writing the column was neither to castigate nor praise teams benefiting from unsustainable trends, but to acknowledge what a large role randomness plays in the game. The conclusion was always that unsustainable trends should tend to buck over time, but the truth is, sometimes they don’t. Not for a while, at least.
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Re: Rational Exuberance and the 2012 Orioles

PostPost #2 by Matt P » September 22nd, 2012, 12:58 am

I listened to Keith Law and Nick Piecoro talk about the column on the Baseball Today podcast.

Long story short, they both don't agree with the O's being one of the best teams in baseball and one of the main reasons is because, in their opinions, didn't build the team the right way.

I guess that means since they haven't had an elite farm system they don't deserve to be where they are at according to them. It's just an opinion shared by most saber metrics people.
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Re: Rational Exuberance and the 2012 Orioles

PostPost #3 by Jordan Tuwiner » September 22nd, 2012, 11:19 am

I think what's funny in all of this is that O's fans really don't care if the team is supposed to be bad.

Fact is, there hasn't been a good team here in 15 years and it's irrelevant to O's fans how this team is achieving success.
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Re: Rational Exuberance and the 2012 Orioles

PostPost #4 by Tucker Blair » September 22nd, 2012, 11:37 am

Matt P wrote:I listened to Keith Law and Nick Piecoro talk about the column on the Baseball Today podcast.

Long story short, they both don't agree with the O's being one of the best teams in baseball and one of the main reasons is because, in their opinions, didn't build the team the right way.

I guess that means since they haven't had an elite farm system they don't deserve to be where they are at according to them. It's just an opinion shared by most saber metrics people.

To me, they just sound miserable and grumpy.
I listened to that as well.
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