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Value in mind, Yu Darvish or Wei-Yin Chen?

Value in mind, Yu Darvish or Wei-Yin Chen?

PostPost #1 by Baysox347 » August 18th, 2012, 1:53 pm

Keep in mind their salaries. Who would you rather have? Yu Darvish or Wei-Yin Chen?

Chen
2012:
- 2.2 fWAR
- 3.70 ERA
- 4.09 FIP

12:$3.072M, 13:$3.572M, 14:$4.072M, 15:$4.75M club option ($0.372M buyout)

Darvish
2012:
- 3.1 fWAR
- 4.51 ERA
- 3.74 FIP

12:$5.5M, 13:$9.5M, 14:$10M, 15:$10M, 16:$10M, 17:$11M

Keep in mind Texas paid a $51 million posting fee. That money does not go to Darvish, but it is almost as if they are paying him an extra $8.5 million per year. So:


12:$13.5M, 13:$17.5M, 14:$18M, 15:$18M, 16:$18M, 17:$19M

I'd much rather have Chen because of the value. Darvish is the better pitcher, but maybe by 1 - 1.5 WAR per year. Chen has a better contract, better value, and there is less risk.
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Re: Value in mind, Yu Darvish or Wei-Yin Chen?

PostPost #2 by Adam Wolff » August 18th, 2012, 2:46 pm

Chen has the potential to provide great value over the life of his contract, while there's a huge risk that Darvish will never provide the production his salary demands. I'd expect Darvish to outperform Chen going forward, but the marginal improvement in output would not be worth the more than double he'll be earning.

I'd take Chen and his team friendly contract for sure.
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Re: Value in mind, Yu Darvish or Wei-Yin Chen?

PostPost #3 by OriolesRedskins28 » August 18th, 2012, 2:50 pm

Nice comparison. I agree that Chen is the much better value with similar production for only a fraction of the cost. The biggest advantage to me is the length of commitment in Chen's deal. Not only is it risky to make a long term commitment to any pitcher, one coming out of Japan carries even more risk as you don't know how their body will hold up over multiple seasons adjusting to the MLB pitching schedule/season. I know Don mentioned that as being one of the reasons that clubs should be wary of Darvish when he was posted.
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Re: Value in mind, Yu Darvish or Wei-Yin Chen?

PostPost #4 by David » August 18th, 2012, 7:08 pm

I would also take Chen, no way I would pay double the contract for a pitcher who quite frankly isn't much better.
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Re: Value in mind, Yu Darvish or Wei-Yin Chen?

PostPost #5 by birdwatcher55 » August 19th, 2012, 9:48 am

There is really no debate here. Darvish was very pricey and Chen came at value. It will be interesting to see DD dive into the free agent pitching market this winter and see what he comes up with value-wise. I would expect to see four or five new pitchers in camp for ST if DD follows his usual track record 8-)
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Re: Value in mind, Yu Darvish or Wei-Yin Chen?

PostPost #6 by Matt P » August 19th, 2012, 3:20 pm

As of right now, Chen. Darvish can still live up to his contract though.
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