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FanGraphs: Can’t Shake Jake (Arrieta)

FanGraphs: Can’t Shake Jake (Arrieta)

PostPost #1 by Jordan Tuwiner » July 11th, 2012, 3:49 pm

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... ioles-fip/

This article at FanGraphs somewhat echoes my earlier analysis of Arrieta: his stuff is simply too good for him to have been pitching so badly this season.

Certainly worth the read.
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Re: FanGraphs: Can’t Shake Jake (Arrieta)

PostPost #2 by BuckMagic » July 11th, 2012, 7:34 pm

Makes me feel a bit better that a Rays fan has positive thoughts!

I have more hope now after reading that. When does Jake get another chance?! :?
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Re: FanGraphs: Can’t Shake Jake (Arrieta)

PostPost #3 by Tucker Blair » July 11th, 2012, 7:53 pm

I am hoping Jake can go to AAA and clear his head.

At some point I think he is back up (whether it is in a month, or September.)

I am not writing him off by any means yet. Way too much talent.
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Re: FanGraphs: Can’t Shake Jake (Arrieta)

PostPost #4 by Don » July 11th, 2012, 8:06 pm

I am not quite sure who follows me on twitter, but I made a point to talk about Arrieta this week in a few short, sweet, 140 character pieces.

He is a mess mechanically and this is putting it nicely. He changes tempo, no identical follow through outing to outing. His stride is slightly off without consistency, his landing is off and not consistent. Jake has so many voices that he is a big ball of mess.

I said last season that he is slider happy, this has not changed and it is still his off-speed of choice. When it runs flat, he is a Christmas tree. When it has bite and snap, he can rack up double digit strikeouts. He does not throw his change up enough and it is non-existent against right handed hitters. When he throws his change up, it makes that 2 seam play up more. It also balances out the 4 seam diet that guys can no longer sit on "heavy" pitches.

I have always said he was the best of the bunch. He needed to learn to become a pitcher, this is when he will "get it".
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Re: FanGraphs: Can’t Shake Jake (Arrieta)

PostPost #5 by Jordan Tuwiner » July 11th, 2012, 8:10 pm

Don wrote:I am not quite sure who follows me on twitter, but I made a point to talk about Arrieta this week in a few short, sweet, 140 character pieces.

He is a mess mechanically and this is putting it nicely. He changes tempo, no identical follow through outing to outing. His stride is slightly off without consistency, his landing is off and not consistent. Jake has so many voices that he is a big ball of mess.

I said last season that he is slider happy, this has not changed and it is still his off-speed of choice. When it runs flat, he is a Christmas tree. When it has bite and snap, he can rack up double digit strikeouts. He does not throw his change up enough and it is non-existent against right handed hitters. When he throws his change up, it makes that 2 seam play up more. It also balances out the 4 seam diet that guys can no longer sit on "heavy" pitches.

I have always said he was the best of the bunch. He needed to learn to become a pitcher, this is when he will "get it".

Hopefully Griffin and Peterson can work some magic with him at AAA.
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Re: FanGraphs: Can’t Shake Jake (Arrieta)

PostPost #6 by Matt P » July 11th, 2012, 9:19 pm

Don wrote:I am not quite sure who follows me on twitter, but I made a point to talk about Arrieta this week in a few short, sweet, 140 character pieces.

He is a mess mechanically and this is putting it nicely. He changes tempo, no identical follow through outing to outing. His stride is slightly off without consistency, his landing is off and not consistent. Jake has so many voices that he is a big ball of mess.

I said last season that he is slider happy, this has not changed and it is still his off-speed of choice. When it runs flat, he is a Christmas tree. When it has bite and snap, he can rack up double digit strikeouts. He does not throw his change up enough and it is non-existent against right handed hitters. When he throws his change up, it makes that 2 seam play up more. It also balances out the 4 seam diet that guys can no longer sit on "heavy" pitches.

I have always said he was the best of the bunch. He needed to learn to become a pitcher, this is when he will "get it".
Thank you for posting this. Maybe this will end all the "luck" talk about him.
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Re: FanGraphs: Can’t Shake Jake (Arrieta)

PostPost #7 by Jordan Tuwiner » July 11th, 2012, 9:20 pm

Matt P wrote:Thank you for posting this. Maybe this will end all the "luck" talk about him.

I think it's clear that there was more to Arrieta's struggles than luck. But I still believe it played a large part.
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Re: FanGraphs: Can’t Shake Jake (Arrieta)

PostPost #8 by birdwatcher55 » July 12th, 2012, 5:44 am

I really hope I never see him in Baltimore again. Time to move on. He needs a fresh start somewhere else 8-)
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Re: FanGraphs: Can’t Shake Jake (Arrieta)

PostPost #9 by Jordan Tuwiner » July 12th, 2012, 10:38 am

birdwatcher55 wrote:I really hope I never see him in Baltimore again. Time to move on. He needs a fresh start somewhere else 8-)

I still think he's going to prove you wrong.
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Re: FanGraphs: Can’t Shake Jake (Arrieta)

PostPost #10 by Matt P » July 13th, 2012, 2:40 am

birdwatcher55 wrote:I really hope I never see him in Baltimore again. Time to move on. He needs a fresh start somewhere else 8-)

I wouldn't be surprised at all if he returns to Baltimore and becomes a top of the rotation starter. I think you are wrong in giving up on him.
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Re: FanGraphs: Can’t Shake Jake (Arrieta)

PostPost #11 by birdwatcher55 » July 13th, 2012, 6:23 am

If Jake ever returns, it will be as a defacto closer. His days as a starter in Baltimore are history and hopefully so is his reign. Just my two cents 8-)
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Re: FanGraphs: Can’t Shake Jake (Arrieta)

PostPost #12 by Jordan Tuwiner » July 13th, 2012, 10:09 am

birdwatcher55 wrote:If Jake ever returns, it will be as a defacto closer. His days as a starter in Baltimore are history and hopefully so is his reign. Just my two cents 8-)

We'll see what happens later in the season or if a current start goes down with an injury. Unless they deal for someone, I think Arrieta is the first one back up.
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Re: FanGraphs: Can’t Shake Jake (Arrieta)

PostPost #13 by A_K » July 13th, 2012, 12:59 pm

Matt P wrote:Thank you for posting this. Maybe this will end all the "luck" talk about him.


"Luck" in the sense that it's used to describe unsustainable results refers to many things, including what Don describes in his scouting report above. I see his post as a supplemental argument to the one about Arrieta's unsustainable results this season, not a contradictory argument.

What people mean when they say a pitcher or hitter is getting unlucky with their results is one of the most misunderstood elements of sabermetrics. What it categorically does not mean, however, is that a player is doing everything fine and the universe is just randomly dealing him negative outcomes. There's more to it than that.
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