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If It Cost The Same Would You Rather Have Grienke or Headley?

Re: If It Cost The Same Would You Rather Have Grienke or Headley?

PostPost #16 by birdwatcher55 » July 9th, 2012, 11:53 am

I have a feeling we're going to sink to the bottom very quickly starting Friday. This 6-13 stretch before the All-Star break did not happen by accident. Just my two cents 8-)
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Re: If It Cost The Same Would You Rather Have Grienke or Headley?

PostPost #17 by Rising O's » July 9th, 2012, 12:29 pm

None. Headley is not worth the type of package it would take to get Grienke. And without an extension you simply do not make that trade for Grienke when you are running on a decade of futility and not enough talent in the minors.
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Re: If It Cost The Same Would You Rather Have Grienke or Headley?

PostPost #18 by ofahn » July 9th, 2012, 3:09 pm

Rising O's wrote:Headley is not worth the type of package it would take to get Grienke.


IMO GRIENKE in not the package it would take to get Grienke. It is also MO that signing him to an extension beyond 3/36M would move the situation from bad to worse.

Clearly, I feel strongly about this but I might be swayed by a an objective explanation as to WHY they see Grienke is a top of the rotation pitcher. I don't think anyone has made that yet.
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Re: If It Cost The Same Would You Rather Have Grienke or Headley?

PostPost #19 by birdwatcher55 » July 9th, 2012, 4:25 pm

Grienke is going to stay in Milwaukee, according to Peter Gammons. I don't see much changing 8-)
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Re: If It Cost The Same Would You Rather Have Grienke or Headley?

PostPost #20 by LA Detective » July 9th, 2012, 5:33 pm

I think Headley would make the biggest impact if our scouts say that he truely is above average to very good defensively. The reasons are:

1. It would be such a huge upgrade over what we have now. Headley isnt even an All- Star type but we are really bad over there at 3b. The difference would be like we got an all-star.

2. We have him for 2 more years and that problem is solved. Look at the FA list up coming and it is bare for solid 3b.

I really believe we can be right in this until the end if we fill some of the holes - 3b, LF, 2b,and Gregg's spot, and top of the order. Headly, Denard Span type for LF and leadoff, a defensive wiz at 2b that could bat 9th and we are on our way. I do think our pitching will improve with the two we brought up. 2 of Matusz, Arrieta, Hunter and Britton will be back and improved, if not all 4. We might have to trade a Matusz type and some of our prospects after the top 3 to do some of this, but most of them can be replaced.
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Re: If It Cost The Same Would You Rather Have Grienke or Headley?

PostPost #21 by Rising O's » July 10th, 2012, 8:32 am

I like Headley, especially his road splits. Which was the best reason to like Adrian Gonzalez too. If the Orioles were able to swing a deal for him I would be happy.
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Re: If It Cost The Same Would You Rather Have Grienke or Headley?

PostPost #22 by mikezpen » July 10th, 2012, 3:13 pm

If you want to build for the future, shoot for Greinke. If the Orioles have only enough to get one of the two, shoot for the top pitcher.
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Re: If It Cost The Same Would You Rather Have Grienke or Headley?

PostPost #23 by ofahn » July 10th, 2012, 3:18 pm

mikezpen wrote:If you want to build for the future, shoot for Greinke. If the Orioles have only enough to get one of the two, shoot for the top pitcher.


I disagree.

First, we would be moving at least our third and fourth best prospects to get him and then allocating about 20% of an enhanced payroll to keep him. Probably for two or three years past his prime. IMO, that's how you wreck a franchise.
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Re: If It Cost The Same Would You Rather Have Grienke or Headley?

PostPost #24 by Matt P » July 10th, 2012, 4:29 pm

I would much rather have Headley. Greinke without an extension would do nothing for the O's where Headley could fill the huge void at 3B for the next 2 years. Headley is one of the better 3B in the game today and getting him out of Petco he could become an elite 3B.
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Re: If It Cost The Same Would You Rather Have Grienke or Headley?

PostPost #25 by A_K » July 11th, 2012, 2:00 pm

Since 2008, Grienke has produced annual WARs of 4.9, 9.3, 5.1 and 3.9, and he has a 3.6 through half of this season. Recognizing that 2009 will clearly represent his peak year you can still safely say that he's somewhere between a 4 and 5 WAR pitcher every season, which in this league is clearly a top of the rotation starter. Clearly. It's been since 2007 since he put up a FIP or xFIP above 4 (4.14 xFIP in 2007). I'm not really sure why there's any disagreement about what type of player he is.

Headley since 2008 has produced WARs of 0.8 (incomplete season), 1.5, 4.9 and 2.7, and has a 3.4 so far this season.

If you choose Headley, you're betting heavily on the fact that he's going to start producing substantially more power once he leaves PETCO Park. A pretty well informed and defensible bet, but not necessarily a given.

I like Headley. A lot. I live in San Diego and watch him play virtually every day. Great defensive third baseman with a patient approach at the plate and a smooth, easy swing. But to me, choosing Headley over Grienke in a straight up choice doesn't make much sense, unless you're basing it on his contract situation and team need. Even in terms of team need, it's a pretty difficult conversation, given how terrible our starting pitching is and how terrible our third base situation is.
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Re: If It Cost The Same Would You Rather Have Grienke or Headley?

PostPost #26 by ofahn » July 11th, 2012, 2:21 pm

A_K wrote:choosing Headley over Grienke in a straight up choice doesn't make much sense, unless you're basing it on his contract situation and team need. Even in terms of team need, it's a pretty difficult conversation, given how terrible our starting pitching is and how terrible our third base situation is.


In today's game contract and control years ALWAYS have to be considered. That being said, I believe as bad as our starting pitching situation is, our corner infield defense is actually worse and must be addressed first. I am also taking into consideration that we MIGHT have SP solutions in house, but we don't for 3B.
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Re: If It Cost The Same Would You Rather Have Grienke or Headley?

PostPost #27 by ofahn » July 11th, 2012, 2:21 pm

A_K wrote:I live in San Diego


What do the fans there think Headley is worth?
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Re: If It Cost The Same Would You Rather Have Grienke or Headley?

PostPost #28 by A_K » July 11th, 2012, 3:14 pm

ofahn wrote:
What do the fans there think Headley is worth?


People here are pretty shocked that there's a market for Headley. He's been the object of a lot of derision over the last two years and the most common reaction I hear from fans is that the Padres would be lucky to get anything for him. I've spent most of the last two years trying to convince Padres fans that Headley's good.
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Re: If It Cost The Same Would You Rather Have Grienke or Headley?

PostPost #29 by Jordan Tuwiner » July 11th, 2012, 3:25 pm

A_K wrote:
People here are pretty shocked that there's a market for Headley. He's been the object of a lot of derision over the last two years and the most common reaction I hear from fans is that the Padres would be lucky to get anything for him. I've spent most of the last two years trying to convince Padres fans that Headley's good.

I guess they just don't understand park factors?
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Re: If It Cost The Same Would You Rather Have Grienke or Headley?

PostPost #30 by birdwatcher55 » July 12th, 2012, 6:18 pm

I think Matusz and a C level prospect gets it done. Matusz goes home and we get a lock down 3B for two more seasons. Seems like a win, win situation all around 8-)
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