Welcome to the Orioles Nation Forums! Like most online communities, you must register to post on our message board. However, posting is free--it always will be--and registration is a simple process. Become part of the growing Orioles Nation community and register now!

If we fall out of contention, this is who I'd try to deal:

If we fall out of contention, this is who I'd try to deal:

PostPost #1 by docjj » July 5th, 2012, 2:55 pm

1. Jim Johnson. Sell high. He's the top closer in MLB. Teams always overpay for closers. He might garner a top prospect in return. We could give Strop a shot at closing.

2. JJ Hardy. As much as it would pain me to see, we could give Flaherty a shot or move Andino over to short. I would part with Hardy only if the return were substantial.

3. Mark Reynolds. I don't think anyone would really want him. I'd gladly take a B level prospect in return.

4. Jason Hammel. This one would hurt, especially since we don't have a lot of options for starting pitching. But he's having a big year and maybe we could "sell high" and garner some young prospects.

5. Nick Markakis. I don't think anyone would take him either. He's way overpaid for his production, has trouble staying healthy, and the bloom seems to have come off his rose....

6. Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta. I don't think anyone wants them. They stink. A fresh start with a new organization may be needed. They may turn out awesome one day. But probably not. We would definitely be selling low...but maybe they could be packaged in a deal with any of 1-5.


Keepers:

Jones, Wieters, Strop, Chen, Avery.
docjj
DSL Orioles
 
Posts: 182
Joined: January 2011
Reputation Score: 3

Re: If we fall out of contention, this is who I'd try to deal:

PostPost #2 by ofahn » July 5th, 2012, 3:21 pm

docjj wrote:1. Jim Johnson. Sell high. He's the top closer in MLB. Teams always overpay for closers. He might garner a top prospect in return. We could give Strop a shot at closing.

2. JJ Hardy. As much as it would pain me to see, we could give Flaherty a shot or move Andino over to short. I would part with Hardy only if the return were substantial.

3. Mark Reynolds. I don't think anyone would really want him. I'd gladly take a B level prospect in return.

4. Jason Hammel. This one would hurt, especially since we don't have a lot of options for starting pitching. But he's having a big year and maybe we could "sell high" and garner some young prospects.

5. Nick Markakis. I don't think anyone would take him either. He's way overpaid for his production, has trouble staying healthy, and the bloom seems to have come off his rose....

6. Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta. I don't think anyone wants them. They stink. A fresh start with a new organization may be needed. They may turn out awesome one day. But probably not. We would definitely be selling low...but maybe they could be packaged in a deal with any of 1-5.


Keepers:

Jones, Wieters, Strop, Chen, Avery.


IMO Johnson is worth at least two top prospects. Just remember what Texas paid for Mike Adams last year.

I would demand the same for Hardy.

We MIGHT get a C level prospect for Reynolds but we would have to pay the rest of his salary.

Hammel should be worth at least two top prospects and a mid level prospect. Not because he's the best SP available (he'll probably be the third best) but because he's under control through next year AND he's proven in the A L East.

I would offer Brian Matusz to the Tigers for Rick Porcello. Detroit is just as frustrated with him as we are with Matusz. Porcello is a ground ball pitcher trying to survive with the Tigers infield. Both pitchers could use a fresh start and Porcello might do better he with an (hopefully soon) upgraded infield defense.
User avatar
ofahn
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 4400
Joined: May 2011
Reputation Score: 85

Re: If we fall out of contention, this is who I'd try to deal:

PostPost #3 by osforlife » July 5th, 2012, 5:47 pm

docjj wrote:1. Jim Johnson. Sell high. He's the top closer in MLB. Teams always overpay for closers. He might garner a top prospect in return. We could give Strop a shot at closing.

2. JJ Hardy. As much as it would pain me to see, we could give Flaherty a shot or move Andino over to short. I would part with Hardy only if the return were substantial.

3. Mark Reynolds. I don't think anyone would really want him. I'd gladly take a B level prospect in return.

4. Jason Hammel. This one would hurt, especially since we don't have a lot of options for starting pitching. But he's having a big year and maybe we could "sell high" and garner some young prospects.

5. Nick Markakis. I don't think anyone would take him either. He's way overpaid for his production, has trouble staying healthy, and the bloom seems to have come off his rose....

6. Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta. I don't think anyone wants them. They stink. A fresh start with a new organization may be needed. They may turn out awesome one day. But probably not. We would definitely be selling low...but maybe they could be packaged in a deal with any of 1-5.


Keepers:

Jones, Wieters, Strop, Chen, Avery.

I'd keep Hardy until Machado is ready. That was the point of his contract.How can you say Nick Markakis has trouble staying healthy? He has averaged 157 games through 2006-2011. And if I believe correctly, this is his first trip to the DL in his career. He should stay. If Reynolds goes on a hot streak he could be worth something. We'd have to eat alot of his contract though. Jim Johnson and Jason Hammel would both bring back big returns. Let Brian Matusz spend the rest of the year in Norfolk and try to figure things out. He didn't perform well this year but it was definitly a big step forward from 2011. Maybe he can take a step forward next year too. I'am not completely sold on the idea that Jake Arrieta is pitching better than the results show from watching him, but I think Jordan might be on to something that he is just getting extremely unlcuky. Let him ride out the rest of the season in the bigs to see if his luck turns around.
User avatar
osforlife
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 1628
Joined: October 2011
Location: Southern Maryland
Reputation Score: 59

Re: If we fall out of contention, this is who I'd try to deal:

PostPost #4 by osforlife » July 5th, 2012, 5:49 pm

ofahn wrote:
docjj wrote:1. Jim Johnson. Sell high. He's the top closer in MLB. Teams always overpay for closers. He might garner a top prospect in return. We could give Strop a shot at closing.

2. JJ Hardy. As much as it would pain me to see, we could give Flaherty a shot or move Andino over to short. I would part with Hardy only if the return were substantial.

3. Mark Reynolds. I don't think anyone would really want him. I'd gladly take a B level prospect in return.

4. Jason Hammel. This one would hurt, especially since we don't have a lot of options for starting pitching. But he's having a big year and maybe we could "sell high" and garner some young prospects.

5. Nick Markakis. I don't think anyone would take him either. He's way overpaid for his production, has trouble staying healthy, and the bloom seems to have come off his rose....

6. Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta. I don't think anyone wants them. They stink. A fresh start with a new organization may be needed. They may turn out awesome one day. But probably not. We would definitely be selling low...but maybe they could be packaged in a deal with any of 1-5.


Keepers:

Jones, Wieters, Strop, Chen, Avery.


IMO Johnson is worth at least two top prospects. Just remember what Texas paid for Mike Adams last year.

I would demand the same for Hardy.

We MIGHT get a C level prospect for Reynolds but we would have to pay the rest of his salary.

Hammel should be worth at least two top prospects and a mid level prospect. Not because he's the best SP available (he'll probably be the third best) but because he's under control through next year AND he's proven in the A L East.

I would offer Brian Matusz to the Tigers for Rick Porcello. Detroit is just as frustrated with him as we are with Matusz. Porcello is a ground ball pitcher trying to survive with the Tigers infield. Both pitchers could use a fresh start and Porcello might do better he with an (hopefully soon) upgraded infield defense.

The tigers would never trade Porcello for Matusz. They might be frutrated that he didn't pan out to his ceiling, but by all means he is a better pitcher than Brian Matusz. His 4.35 ERA isn't half bad and he also has 3.84/3.95 FIP's/xFIP's.
User avatar
osforlife
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 1628
Joined: October 2011
Location: Southern Maryland
Reputation Score: 59

Re: If we fall out of contention, this is who I'd try to deal:

PostPost #5 by ofahn » July 5th, 2012, 7:08 pm

osforlife wrote:I'd keep Hardy until Machado is ready. That was the point of his contract.


I wouldn't shop Hardy but if a team offered me an A and a B level prospect for him I would make that trade in a minute. Machado has made adjustments at AA and is getting hot again. It wouldn't surprise me to see him get at least 100 ABs at AAA this year. If he has a solid performance at the AFL this winter I could see him coming to Spring Training fighting for the job.

Of course, there are a whole bunch of "what ifs" in that scenario but it withing the realm of possibility. We could get a much better return on Hardy by July 31st this year than we could on March 31st next year.
User avatar
ofahn
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 4400
Joined: May 2011
Reputation Score: 85

Re: If we fall out of contention, this is who I'd try to deal:

PostPost #6 by osforlife » July 5th, 2012, 8:59 pm

ofahn wrote:
osforlife wrote:I'd keep Hardy until Machado is ready. That was the point of his contract.


I wouldn't shop Hardy but if a team offered me an A and a B level prospect for him I would make that trade in a minute. Machado has made adjustments at AA and is getting hot again. It wouldn't surprise me to see him get at least 100 ABs at AAA this year. If he has a solid performance at the AFL this winter I could see him coming to Spring Training fighting for the job.

Of course, there are a whole bunch of "what ifs" in that scenario but it withing the realm of possibility. We could get a much better return on Hardy by July 31st this year than we could on March 31st next year.

I just really hope we don't rush Machado. He's a teenager and has plenty of time before hopefully starting a long career in the majors. He is doing fine in AA but is by no means lighting up anything. If he finished the year with his batting line he has now, I would even consider starting him at AA again. But, first of all, I think he should just finish the year at AA. There is not reason to rush him to AAA for 100 at-bats.
User avatar
osforlife
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 1628
Joined: October 2011
Location: Southern Maryland
Reputation Score: 59

Re: If we fall out of contention, this is who I'd try to deal:

PostPost #7 by ofahn » July 5th, 2012, 9:22 pm

osforlife wrote:
ofahn wrote:
osforlife wrote:I'd keep Hardy until Machado is ready. That was the point of his contract.


I wouldn't shop Hardy but if a team offered me an A and a B level prospect for him I would make that trade in a minute. Machado has made adjustments at AA and is getting hot again. It wouldn't surprise me to see him get at least 100 ABs at AAA this year. If he has a solid performance at the AFL this winter I could see him coming to Spring Training fighting for the job.

Of course, there are a whole bunch of "what ifs" in that scenario but it withing the realm of possibility. We could get a much better return on Hardy by July 31st this year than we could on March 31st next year.

I just really hope we don't rush Machado. He's a teenager and has plenty of time before hopefully starting a long career in the majors. He is doing fine in AA but is by no means lighting up anything. If he finished the year with his batting line he has now, I would even consider starting him at AA again. But, first of all, I think he should just finish the year at AA. There is not reason to rush him to AAA for 100 at-bats.


I don't think he's being rushed. Take a look at his last 15 games. This is player that is beginning to figure things out. If his OPS is .850 at the end of July he'll be ready to move up. Please take notice that I conditioned his consideration for the SS job next Spring on a strong showing at the AFL.
User avatar
ofahn
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 4400
Joined: May 2011
Reputation Score: 85

Re: If we fall out of contention, this is who I'd try to deal:

PostPost #8 by dan72 » July 5th, 2012, 11:58 pm

I have to disagree with #2.
Andino is a strikeout machine, not an every day ss. Flaherty does not belong in the big leagues. period. He can not hit. Neither of these guys should be highly regarded or kept for that matter, I'm ok if you move Hardy but don't replace him with either of these two guys.

Can't figure out why management is so high on Flahert. Yes he can play a lot of positions on the field, but if you can not hit, you can not stay in the show.

Otherwise I agree on all the other points.
dan72
GCL Orioles
 
Posts: 368
Joined: July 2011
Reputation Score: 5

Re: If we fall out of contention, this is who I'd try to deal:

PostPost #9 by Matt P » July 6th, 2012, 1:09 am

If they fall out they should trade (try to in some cases) every position player except Jones, Wieters, Davis, and Avery, every pitcher other than the young starters (Chen, Tillman, Matusz, etc.), Patton, and Strop.
Matt P
Aberdeen IronBirds
 
Posts: 1717
Joined: October 2011
Location: Pennsylvania
Reputation Score: 37

Re: If we fall out of contention, this is who I'd try to deal:

PostPost #10 by DougDE » July 6th, 2012, 7:16 pm

docjj wrote:1. Jim Johnson. Sell high. He's the top closer in MLB. Teams always overpay for closers. He might garner a top prospect in return. We could give Strop a shot at closing.

2. JJ Hardy. As much as it would pain me to see, we could give Flaherty a shot or move Andino over to short. I would part with Hardy only if the return were substantial.

3. Mark Reynolds. I don't think anyone would really want him. I'd gladly take a B level prospect in return.

4. Jason Hammel. This one would hurt, especially since we don't have a lot of options for starting pitching. But he's having a big year and maybe we could "sell high" and garner some young prospects.

5. Nick Markakis. I don't think anyone would take him either. He's way overpaid for his production, has trouble staying healthy, and the bloom seems to have come off his rose....

6. Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta. I don't think anyone wants them. They stink. A fresh start with a new organization may be needed. They may turn out awesome one day. But probably not. We would definitely be selling low...but maybe they could be packaged in a deal with any of 1-5.


Keepers:

Jones, Wieters, Strop, Chen, Avery.

Didn't really just say a 6th year player making his first trip on the DL can't stay healthy did you?
DougDE
GCL Orioles
 
Posts: 376
Joined: September 2010
Reputation Score: 5

Re: If we fall out of contention, this is who I'd try to deal:

PostPost #11 by Oriole85 » July 8th, 2012, 3:15 am

docjj wrote:1. Jim Johnson. Sell high. He's the top closer in MLB. Teams always overpay for closers. He might garner a top prospect in return. We could give Strop a shot at closing.

2. JJ Hardy. As much as it would pain me to see, we could give Flaherty a shot or move Andino over to short. I would part with Hardy only if the return were substantial.

3. Mark Reynolds. I don't think anyone would really want him. I'd gladly take a B level prospect in return.

4. Jason Hammel. This one would hurt, especially since we don't have a lot of options for starting pitching. But he's having a big year and maybe we could "sell high" and garner some young prospects.

5. Nick Markakis. I don't think anyone would take him either. He's way overpaid for his production, has trouble staying healthy, and the bloom seems to have come off his rose....

6. Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta. I don't think anyone wants them. They stink. A fresh start with a new organization may be needed. They may turn out awesome one day. But probably not. We would definitely be selling low...but maybe they could be packaged in a deal with any of 1-5.


Keepers:

Jones, Wieters, Strop, Chen, Avery.

I'm not a big fan of having lots of untradeable players... mine is pretty much limited to Jones(don't think we just signed him to trade him and he has a no-trade), Wieters (I could see the scenario where we realize he won't extend here and if we could get an unbelieveable return -- again not likely), and of course, Machado/Bundy.

I agree totally with your take on Jim Johnson, no reason not to sell high on him, knowing that he is due a raise and some team will overpay for him. Relievers are so volatile. For every Mariano Rivera, you get BJ Ryan.

I like Hardy, we just signed him to an extension last year so don't see this likely. I'm not thrilled with his offense this year but he provides solid defense at a premium position. I sure don't think Flaherty or Andino are upgrades at all from him.

Reynolds sure, find the suitor as you pointed out.

Hammel, I would actually sell high, unless we could get him to an extension at a team-friendly rate. I really like him, but not sure if his value will ever be higher.

Markakis, again I'd trade, but find someone to take on is contract. Excuse me, but why do you say he can't healthy? Other than this current injury, he's played in atleast 157 games a year excluding his rookie year where he played in 147. Not to be rude, but that's an inaccurate statement.

And sure Matusz/Arrieta can be any deal, I think there is a market for them. Starting pitching doesn't grow on trees and who knows what a change of scenery would do(I wouldn't even give up on them here). Don't think we would necessarily be selling low... cheap, cost controlled, starting pitching after all.
Oriole85
DSL Orioles
 
Posts: 67
Joined: October 2011
Reputation Score: 3

Re: If we fall out of contention, this is who I'd try to deal:

PostPost #12 by Oriole85 » July 8th, 2012, 3:17 am

Matt P wrote:If they fall out they should trade (try to in some cases) every position player except Jones, Wieters, Davis, and Avery, every pitcher other than the young starters (Chen, Tillman, Matusz, etc.), Patton, and Strop.

What makes Davis and Avery untradeable or even Patton and Strop? I'd trade any of those starters too, but there's more on the line. Just don't understand how so many players are untradeable by so many fans?
Oriole85
DSL Orioles
 
Posts: 67
Joined: October 2011
Reputation Score: 3

Re: If we fall out of contention, this is who I'd try to deal:

PostPost #13 by Ampontan » July 8th, 2012, 6:23 am

docjj wrote:1. Jim Johnson. Sell high. He's the top closer in MLB. Teams always overpay for closers. He might garner a top prospect in return. We could give Strop a shot at closing.

2. JJ Hardy. As much as it would pain me to see, we could give Flaherty a shot or move Andino over to short. I would part with Hardy only if the return were substantial.

3. Mark Reynolds. I don't think anyone would really want him. I'd gladly take a B level prospect in return.

4. Jason Hammel. This one would hurt, especially since we don't have a lot of options for starting pitching. But he's having a big year and maybe we could "sell high" and garner some young prospects.

5. Nick Markakis. I don't think anyone would take him either. He's way overpaid for his production, has trouble staying healthy, and the bloom seems to have come off his rose....

6. Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta. I don't think anyone wants them. They stink. A fresh start with a new organization may be needed. They may turn out awesome one day. But probably not. We would definitely be selling low...but maybe they could be packaged in a deal with any of 1-5.


The idea of trading #1, #2, and #5 is the philosophy of a small-market, second division team and ensures that the team stays in the second division for the next few years. If the idea is to get out of the second division, those are the players to be kept. If we fall out of contention, it will be partially due to injuries and not exclusively a lack of talent. The idea should be to keep these as the core and add to them.

Trade Johnson --- back to unnecessary 9th inning drama. Trade Hammel --- make an already shaky staff much more shakier. Trade Hardy --- goodbye steady infield defense up the middle with the potential to hit very well at a relatively inexpensive price.

Do you really like how we've been playing the past few years so that you want to see another half-decade of it? Trade these guys and that's what happens.

If we could have traded Reynolds, we would have a long time ago. We're not going to pick up his option. Why bother trading people for B level prospects? Duquette has no trouble finding those without trading anyone.

As for your idea of trading Matusz and Arrieta, it's hard to discuss because it isn't really coherent, but selling low on starting pitchers with potential isn't really a good idea.

Plus, you want to keep Wieters. Why? Boras's premium clients always get big money and almost always walk. Trade the good players and guarantee last place finishes for the remainder of the years he's under control guarantees he also walks as soon as he can. If you're so hot on trading stars, he should be at the top of the list.

Then you want to keep Avery, who is outperforming everything he did in his minor league career until this year. Doesn't make sense.

I can envision a scenario in which they keep both Avery and Hoes, but I can also envision a scenario in which one gets traded. Avery might have more value now, so it would be him.

Enough of this poor boy thinking!
Ampontan
DSL Orioles
 
Posts: 180
Joined: February 2012
Reputation Score: 10

Re: If we fall out of contention, this is who I'd try to deal:

PostPost #14 by Ampontan » July 8th, 2012, 6:28 am

Oriole85 wrote:What makes Davis and Avery untradeable or even Patton and Strop? I'd trade any of those starters too, but there's more on the line. Just don't understand how so many players are untradeable by so many fans?


The important trades have to be made in three weeks, so we're talking about tanking for the rest of July, just when we get Markakis back, Tillman and Gonzalez might stabilize things, and also get Teagarden to back up Wieters.

It is more likely Duquette will do some serious wheeling and dealing in order to remain in contention, and this will involve perhaps trading some minor leaders that will cause eneuresis on message boards (judging from the response for giving up the likes of Tyler Henson and Greg Miclat).

I think Duquette thinks he is capable of restocking the system if he trades some minor leaguers, and I think he is too.
Ampontan
DSL Orioles
 
Posts: 180
Joined: February 2012
Reputation Score: 10

Re: If we fall out of contention, this is who I'd try to deal:

PostPost #15 by Ampontan » July 8th, 2012, 6:30 am

osforlife wrote:I just really hope we don't rush Machado. He's a teenager...


As of a day or so ago, not no more.
Ampontan
DSL Orioles
 
Posts: 180
Joined: February 2012
Reputation Score: 10


Next

Return to Baltimore Orioles

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests

cron