Can you try to explain the discrepancy that MLB analysts think the O’s could win 93 games, but projection systems think closer to 79-80?
Projection systems and MLB analysts really are not that different when it comes down to it. Both sides take in information and try to guess what the record will be based upon that information. The analyst side is certainly less exact and less mathematically inclined, but often that does not mean it is any less accurate. Analysts have flaws in their own biases and knowledge base. Projection systems have flaws in that they are based off of past performance meaning they are unable to typically predict when a player will progress or regress, projection systems can make incorrect playing time allotments based off of injuries, and a myriad of other problems that lie in trying to simply the complicated. Lastly, both analysts and projections systems cannot account for luck, or random statistical variance, reducing the value of any prediction. – Alex
What are your thoughts on the Baysox team so far? Especially Michael Ohlman
Through the first series, the Bowie Baysox have looked tremendous against the Harrisburg Senators (Nationals). Strong pitching performances by Tyler Wilson and Tim Berry, along with Eduardo Rodriguez‘s pure talent. The bullpen has also been solid, with Juan Morillo and Fabio Castillo touching upper 90′s with their fastball. Overall, the pitching has been terrific. On the offensive side, they have been knocking the cover off the ball, along with having some great AB’s. This team does not have a ton of prospects on the offensive side, and mostly consists of a minor-league veteran-heavy lineup.
Michael Ohlman has looked great at the plate, showing that his plate approach will carry over to the next level. I wrote a report on Ohlman a few weeks ago, and not much has really changed. I truly think he can hit at the MLB level. The defense has been up and down at Bowie so far. The footwork is still an issue, and has effected a few of opportunities to block wild pitches. It is early in, but the defense is easily his main concern at this point. – Tucker
First time through the rotation, what are your thoughts?
First and foremost, it is only one time through the rotation so nothing is set in stone quite yet. That being said, the Orioles’ starters have not inspired much confidence. They are not quite this bad, but they are pitching up in the zone too much and throwing too many pitches. Even Tillman was up all game long, he just was not burned as bad as the others. The short outings are beginning to tax the bullpen already and the same problems as last year are beginning to creep up. Judgments should wait to be levied until at least another couple of starts. However, if the rotation does not turn around this team will be plagued once again by the same problems it had last season – Alex
Any concern that Josh Hart is batting .000 so far?
No, it has been three games. Mike Trout will have a stretch where he doesn’t get a hit in three games. Baseball is hard, and Hart is a raw bat with plenty of adjustments and growth needed at the Low-A level still. Relax, at least wait a month before getting worried. – Tucker