Taylor Guerrieri Scouting Report

Taylor Guerrieri has been drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays and is expected to sign.

This is Part 11 in a series previewing 12 potential players for the Orioles’ #4 overall selection in the 2011 draft. The full series:

1. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
2. Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
3. Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia
4. Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt
5. Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgie Tech
6. Bubba Starling, OF, Gardner-Edgerton HS, Kan.
7. Francisco Lindor, SS, Montverde Academy HS, Fla.
8. Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
9. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso HS, Okl.
10. George Springer, OF, Connecticut
11. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Spring Valley HS, S. Car.
12. Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow HS, Okl.

Taylor Guerrieri is my “Phoenix” player this year; I usually label them as the out of nowhere types. He has always been a radar player who could be a late bloomer, but I was flat out wrong because he found an extra gear late last summer and it still shows to this very day. Guerrieri owns electric stuff and from a makeup standpoint rivals the best in this high school pitching class. He has gone from a 2nd or 3rd round selection into an easy top half of the 1st round based slot, which has a lot to do with his massive projection.

School: Spring Valley H.S. (SC)
Position: RHP
Throws: Right
Bats: Right
Height: 6’ 3″
Weight: 190-195
Body: Solid lean frame, a wide body pitcher with very long limbs that indicate that he could possible grow a bit more in height and definitely weight. He shows slight above average muscular development for his age.

Guerrieri owns electric stuff and from a makeup standpoint rivals the best in this high school pitching class.

Fastball

This is the pitch that has shot Guerrieri up draft boards. He was at one point another run of the mill all projection type player who sat in the upper 80’s, but that changed in a year and he now shows the ability to sit at 93-95 mph, and reach back for 98 mph on occasions with the four seam fastball. He will throw a two seam fastball (close to cutter) in the 91-92 range, and has a bit more command of this pitch. His two-seamer has some slight late sink and maintains solid movement that is tough to square up on for contact.

Curveball

Guerrieri possess one of the best power curveballs I have seen out of the arms labeled as first round material in the prep ranks. He displays solid command of this pitch at times, and long term it should be an above-average pitch. His curve sits nicely in the 80-82 mph range and has that typical sharp hammer (12/6), but he throws it with force. His hand looks funny when throwing it and I thought it was a modified knuckle curve. I know he does something different with fingers to get that sharp snap on the curve, but it comes out like lighting. I watched bullpen sessions that he threw with more bite and less velocity. As he matures and learn to control the pitch, which should greatly improve as a professional.

Changeup

I do not Guerrieri’s changeup often in game action, but he works with it in the bullpen and is learning how to craft a circle change. It sits in the mid 80’s and has a great deal of potential considering his two other pitches show plus stuff. If he can learn to craft this pitch it could easily make him an upper rotation type of arm.

Slider/Cutter

Guerrieri’s slider/cutter is another pitch that maybe gets lumped into the two-seam conversation because it might be a conglomerate of all three pitches. This pitch just does some things of all three. I have seen a sweep at times, a tight lateral movement, and the previously mentioned lateral movement with some slight sink, which all run about the same speed and will need some work. It is not a pitch that I want to scale at this time.

Mechanics

Overall, Guerrieri needs to work on his approach as a professional. He does not maintain the same motions on each pitch and there are subtle tells with his head action, glove placement, arm slot between pitches, and his foot landing placement. This is nothing to knock on him at all, but something that a lot of guys go through in development. Most of it is easily correctable and coachable, so it should not be seen as much of an issue; it just needs to bring light on why he may not be a guy within the top 5 slots.

As he starts the delivery, Guerrieri has an extended loading phase that drops almost completely down in line with the lower body. He brings it in a circular arc as he transitions phases, which can lead to timing and control issues if it falls slightly out of synchronization with the lower half and the rest of his delivery. He brings the ball back into the cocked position pulled behind the body and pointed towards the second baseman. This aspect is not too much arm injury related, but it compounds with the long loading arc, making two potential items that could pose control issues. He tends to display a slight rise and titter-totter action with glove side to set up his motion to the plate, but the shoulders are set in a position where it should not place extensive pressure on them.

He shows push and extension where he drives off the back leg. His stride length, at its best, is very well in line and solid plant that maintains the slight knee flexion. He uses his core and hips showcasing an adequate hip rotation and downhill drive towards the plate. He shows a decent lag between the lower and upper half that whips his hand through getting tremendous velocity with a seemingly effortless approach to the plate. As with most high school pitchers, he tends to shorten his follow through and getting a better extension could lead to a better control of his pitches.

Control and Command

I tend to separate control and command because they are two separate items that are mutually exclusive. But when it comes to Guerrieri, these two items fall into the same class because of the need to find consistency in his delivery.

As mentioned in a few locations, this is the where he can greatly improve in the future. His stuff, while very high in quality, can be all over the place from outing to outing. He covers the plate very well, but his pitches get away from him at times. These two things should improve with some revisions in his mechanical delivery and throttle back the dial on the fastball.

Intangibles

He gets a lot of velocity with very little use of his body, which is a good thing. He can dial it up with the big boys and it will look effortless in comparison.

The one thing I took from conversations with others was his metal makeup and wondering if he could ever reach those lofty projections. He will obviously be under scrutiny because he simply started to light it up this season. Would he go back down in velocity with regular professional regiment? Do his mechanical problems force him to the bullpen in the future? These are some of the baseball questions that war rooms will ask concerning him. I think he is not in play for the Orioles at #4, but a talented prospect with a chance to reach his high ceiling.

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This is Part 11 in a series previewing 12 potential players for the Orioles’ #4 overall selection in the 2011 draft. The full series:

1. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
2. Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
3. Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia
4. Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt
5. Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgie Tech
6. Bubba Starling, OF, Gardner-Edgerton HS, Kan.
7. Francisco Lindor, SS, Montverde Academy HS, Fla.
8. Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
9. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso HS, Okl.
10. George Springer, OF, Connecticut
11. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Spring Valley HS, S. Car.
12. Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow HS, Okl.