A few notes before we start. I’ll be making another guest appearance on Minor League Ball (John Sickels), where I’ll talk about the positive and negative surprises this season. You can see my first guest appearance here.
I’m in Florida again, and should make it out to 3-4 GCL games before I leave. I’ll get a good look at Connor Narron, and hopefully see Parker Bridwell‘s debut.
The “All Questions Answered” threads are usually posted on Wednesdays, but I figured I’d get this one up to focus on the draft. The rules are pretty simple:
- Three questions per poster.
- Please avoid asking broad questions like “name your top 20 prospects”.
I’ll answer questions throughout the day.
Feel free to respond to other readers’ questions.
Any word on what happened with the Austin Urban negotiations? It seemed like things were looking very promising, but the deal fell through. So, on a night where most things in the organization were positive, any idea for this one negative?
Haven’t heard anything recently, but before the draft I heard he just “didn’t feel like he was ready” to play pro ball. He wanted a bit more money than the Orioles wanted to give him, too. One negative, hmm, we didn’t sign Alex Gonzalez? It’s hard to find anything bad to say about this year’s draft. 6 of our top 9 picks signed over-slot deals.
- What grade would you give our draft?
- Where does Machado start next year and what do they do about the SS logjam?
- Is Machado your #1 prospect?
1. I don’t like giving out letter grades for drafts this early. We won’t know how things play out for years.
2. Delmarva. Narron may start at Aberdeen, Givens could be moved to pitcher, Schoop to Aberdeen, Rosa to Frederick.
3. Still Britton for me. For me, performance > potential.
-Do you think we need more 2B prospects or is L.J Hoes simply the future?
-Also what of Chris Tillmans future? His last outing was good I believe but where does he go from here?
The Orioles need to stop juggling him and keep him in the majors for an extended period of time. I don’t think he becomes a frontline starter like many thought a year ago, but he should still become a solid #3/4.
Ryan Adams is in the mix as well, as his bat has taken a major step forward this season. Right now, it looks like Adams will beat Hoes to Baltimore. Hoes was sick mid-season and he hasn’t been right since. Next year should give us a better indication.
1- Who is the most overrated prospect in th system?
2- Which prospect could you see yourself hanging out with?
Thanks!
1. Ronnie Welty. People love his power but the average isn’t sustainable and he needs to cut back on the K’s.
2. Tough question…a bunch of the players are laid back and chill. I like talking to some of the players who can step outside of baseball a little bit. A bunch of the international players like Chris Lamb, Dudley Leonora etc. I always find it interesting how the players have to adapt to live in America and how much different it is here. Big adjustment for some.
1.Douglass Ferguson i doing really well.what is your opinion on him? 2.where do you rank our pitching propsects compared to other mlb teams now that the deadline has passed? 3.Who do you personally want to see in september callups?
1. He’s a little old for the GCL and I doubt he plays on any team within the system next year. Every team signs a bunch of UDFA to fill rosters.
2. We don’t have a bunch of stud pitching prospects at the top like Atlanta, but I think our depth is unmatched. There are tons of high ceiling pitchers in the lower minors.
3. I’d like to see Matt Angle up here, but I think the AFL is more likely. He’s just a solid ball player who makes heads up plays and makes the most of a limited tool set. Fans are going to like him.
1. Which 2010 draft pick to reach the majors 1st?
2. Hoes and Henson, utility players or do the O’s need to anchor them at a single position?
3. Which prospect is more likely to be on helium watch Henson, Mahoney, Reimold (yes I still count him as a prospect) or Avery?
1. Dan Klein. They plan on using him as a starter, which means he’ll probably be up in 3 years. If they do end up making him a reliever, he could be up in a year or two.
2. Hoes should stick at 2B, whether he becomes a starting caliber player is another question. Henson is definitely a utility player because he can play 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, RF. I don’t think he’ll hit enough to become a regular.
3. Mahoney. He doesn’t stop hitting…
What would you package for Prince Fielder?
and who are (if anyone) the untouchables on the farm?
Matusz and Britton are the only untouchables for me. I’d also be hesitant to deal Avery.
I’d much rather sign a bat in free agency. I think we’d have to give up 1 of Tillman/Matusz/Britton/Arrieta + 1 of Jones/Bell.
1) Am I right to be disappointed when I compare our draft to what the Nats drafted(using Harper isn’t fair, but Solis, Cole and Ray)?
2) After Z. Britton, who is our best starting pitching prospect that is in Low A or higher? Does this prospect have a chance to start in the majors?
1. The Nats had a big time draft, but the Orioles signed a bunch of over-slotters, too. 6 of their top 9 picks signed over-slot deals. Not too shabby.
2. Ryan Berry or Brandon Erbe. Both may end up as relievers because of Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, Britton etc, might be hard to find a spot. They have the stuff to start, whether or not they find an open spot is the question.
-Where do you see guys like Cowan, Bundy, Henry, Coffey, and Wirsch starting next season?
-Rank the above five in order of potential.
1. Cowan will likely be eased back next season because of his surgery, so he’ll probably start at Delmarva again. Bundy will go to Frederick. Coffey and Wirsch will go to Delmarva. Henry has a slight chance of opening with Frederick but Delmarva is his more likely destination.
2. Coffey, Henry, Wirsch, Bundy, Cowan.
1. In your opinion, does the signing of Machado instantly give the Orioles the best SS prospect in the minors?
2. I like the Connor Narron kid, what do you think his ETA is and could he be a starter for us at 2nd because of Machado?
3. If its possible could you give me three names you expect or would like to see called up in September?
1. Easily. Starlin Castro would be the only guy ahead of him, but he lost prospect status this year.
2. ETA 2013. I don’t think they’ll move him to second, but it looks like Machado will move him to third.
3. Matt Angle, Brandon Snyder and hopefully Chris Tillman for good. I think there’s a better chance Angle goes to the AFL, though.
The 18 year old have to prove he can play in pro ball before I would rank him ahead of Dee Gordon, Starlin Castro, or Jose Iglesias. He provides the best talent at shortstop in all of minor league baseball, but remember that Tim Beckham was considered a “can’t miss” and he is struggling in the Rays organization.
Machado is not even a lock to stay at shortstop because of his size. He could easily bulk up and have to move to a corner infield position. Even if he makes it to MLB to start at short, it will be short lived as his long term spot seems to be thirdbase.
Dee Gordon has no power whatsoever, and his on-base skills aren’t going to allow him to become an elite base stealer. I don’t understand the hype with him at all. Castro isn’t a prospect anymore. Iglesias’ defense is what’s going to get him to the majors. I’ll take Machado’s 5 tool potential over Igelsias.
More and more people are starting to believe Machado will stick at SS. Callis is confident he’ll become a SS in the majors.
Do not get me wrong, I would take Machado over every single middle field player to this point as his ceiling could be all star type of player and there are not many in minor league baseball. I just think some ‘been thier, done that” deserves high rankings over guys that have yet to prove anything.
I hate ranking guys until at least one full season of baseball, maybe this is why I take these kinds of stances.
Oh, I agree, I usually take the player with a full season of data over the other player. But, Machado isn’t just another player. He’s an elite talent.
Would you go after Barret Loux seeing that MLB has made him a free agent starting on September 1st?
He does not have an easy delivery and you see many similarities to Cris Carpenter in makeup and mechanics. He could have a very slight tear that would heal on its own. He has show to come back from bone spurs and I tend to think his genetics would lead to a full recovery from any issues the Diamonbacks may or may not have found.
He has a high ceiling, but flaws. It would be worth the “kick the tires” on him and seeing they may still have some budget room to add a pitcher similar to the one lost in Anderson. On the plus side, a healty Barret will breeze through the minors. If arm issues seem long term, he would be a nice back of the bullpen arm.
All depends on the price. He’s a high risk/high reward and that’s something the Orioles need more of.
One of the BA guys brought up a few good points on Twitter, this whole free agent thing is interesting. They were saying Scott Boras use this situation to have some of his future clients become free agents? What happens if the Diamondbacks end up signing Loux? Will they get him and a comp pick next year? Should be interesting to see how this plays out.
I see this as a “one time example” and who really wants to get injured to explore the free agency aspect. It is a tough sale and you take a real risk throwing your name out in the circle with the label of “dead arm”.
Either way, any loopholes exposed will be clearly rectified in the next collective agreement. I suspect the hammer to drop with international signing, draft slotting, etc… in light of any salary cap at the major league level.
1. Will Hobgood move up to Frederick next season?
2. Given the choice between Beal now and Britton when he was in Delmarva, who would you take and why?
3. When will Connor Narron move to 3B?
1. Nope, he’ll be back with the ‘Birds.
2. Britton, because his ground ball rate was already elite, he was striking out more batters and only walking 3/9 IP. Beal’s command is elite, but until he strikeouts out more batters he’ll never come close to what Britton is. That’s nothing against Beal, though, as he could become a special pitcher with 3-4 more mph on his fastball.
3. I’ve heard he’ll start next season playing only third.
1. Is Connor Narron the real Orioles heir apparent to third over Josh Bell, disregarding any hitches in his development and any trades or future draft picks (ex. Anthony Rendon)?
2. Could you give three names from this years draft that could possibly be a dark horse for contributing in the future with the O’s?
3. Now, anyone who has watched the orioles this season knows they need a power bat. I’m aware that Brandon Waring has some good pop in his bat, but I see him as a utility player. Could you name a couple of players with real power potential?
1. Josh Bell is the future at third base right now. By the time Narron reaches the majors we should know whether Bell is a major league starter, or not. But beyond Bell & Narron, there isn’t anyone else who should contend for the job anytime soon (within the system).
2. Sebastian Vader – Has played very well in the GCL thus far, looks like the O’s got a nice deal in the 18th round. Scott Copeland – Could become a nice back-end starter. Cameron Roth – Has some command issues but he has a nice fastball/curveball combo.
3. Jonathan Schoop has some power potential, Joe Mahoney, Michael Ohlman, Machado, Brenden Webb.
- How likely do you think it is for the Orioles to move Mychal Givens to pitcher after such a brief stint at short before getting injured?
- Which relief prospects, if any, do you see the Orioles bringing up in September?
1. They’ll give him another chance, at least two more seasons and most likely more.
2. Troy Patton will definitely be up in a relief role, I don’t think the Orioles see him as a starter going forward. We could see Jim Hoey or Pat Egan as well.
So based on your projections and with a few extra thrown in on my own. Delmarva next year is Cowan, Coffey, Wirsch, Henry (possible) and Hobgood in the rotation. With Ohlman or Sawyer catching (mine), Anderson or Flacco, Machado, Narron, Givens (guessing) OF featuring Mummey, Shutz, Dunlap. With Schoop and Lenora waiting in the wings? Seems talent heavy. Anyone go elsewhere just to see playing time?
Also, I don’t know anything about Chris Lamb. What can you tell me about him?
Thanks as always.
That would be the rotation if all of them are healthy, also depending on what the plan is with their innings. Hobgood is the only lock. Coffey and Wirsch may end up in the rotation, but I could also see them coming out of the pen to limit their innings. I know for sure Henry will be in the ‘pen. It’s still unclear when Cowan will be back, but when he is ready he should be a starter. I think you’ll see Dan Klein in there as well, though I think he’ll receive a promotion around the same time R. Berry did.
The Orioles have a tough decision to make with Ohlman. Defensive reports have not been good and I think it’s a near lock he moves to 1B, 3B or the outfield. I don’t think Sawyer will be there to start the season and you could even see Dalles.
Anderson and Flacco will likely split time at first. I’d expect the left side of the infield to be Machado at SS and Narron at 3B. Will be tough to find playing time for Giviens, he’ll probably end up DHing a lot, maybe some 2B.
You can lock in Mummey in CF and Schutz in LF. I think you’ll see Brenden Webb in RF. Schoop is a very talented kid and may push for a spot as well. There is definitely a logjam of infielders, which is nice to see. With so much talent on the left side, I think Dudley Leonora will get moved over to second base.
There is certainly a lot of talent heading towards Delmarva next season, it’s just a matter of who players where and when they get there/get healthy. I’m going to look into this SS/3B problem. Amazes me they have so much depth there all of a sudden.
Schoop is talented enough to make the jump to Aberdeen but it would not surprise if he is stuck in EST and starts at Aberdeen. Rosa may get pushed to Frederick though it’s clear he’s not ready.
I actually just edited some video of Lamb that I was going to upload tomorrow anyway. He was signed out of Australia last off season. Throws in the high 80′s with a slurvy breaking ball that’s a pretty good pitch. He has good stuff but some control issues as well. And, no problem.
I am going to look into this SS/3B logjam and will probably have a post on this towards the end of the season. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out.