Introduction
I had a chance to see Matt Hobgood this season during minor league spring training, and he was by far the most impressive pitching prospect.
With a calm, confident presence, Hobgood commanded two plus pitches, pounded opposing hitters inside and made numerous hitters look silly with his filthy curveball.
Some people will question Hobgood and his early struggles, but you can’t expect a first year player, 19 years old, to dominate in a league where the average age is around 21.
Physical Description
With most high school pitchers you’re looking for projection, Hobgood is already filled out. While some sources are reporting he weighed in at 245 pounds at spring training,
an unnamed source told me the correct number is 270. If Hobgood is 270 pounds, he needs to lose some weight, but if he’s 245, fine. He has the build of a workhorse and he should be able to pile up innings over his career.
Hobgood’s build perfectly complements his power arsenal, with wide hips, a big upper-body and powerful legs.
For someone his size, Hobgood moves well off the mound and does a decent job covering first base. In order to stay around 245 pounds during the course of career, he’ll need to maintain conditioning.
Four-Seam Fastball
Hobgood’s four-seamer sat 90-92 mph, touching 94 mph, with a little down and in movement on right handed hitters. Constantly pounding hitters inside, Hobgood demonstrated average command of the pitch and occasionally left it up in the zone, where hitters had little trouble squaring up on it.
Though people will drool over Hobgood’s four-seam fastball velocity, his two-seam fastball at times produces equal, if not better, results, with a lesser margin for error.
Two-Seam Fastball
Sitting 89-91 mph, with excellent down and in movement on right handed hitters, Hobgood generated ground-ball after ground-ball and broke bat after bat. Hobgood does a much better job locating this pitch than his four-seamer and with so much down and in movement, right handed hitters have trouble squaring up on the ball.
The pitch is quite effective against lefties as well, as it fades away from them. Hobgood continuously attacks lefties on the outside of the plate making his two-seamer a true ground-ball weapon.
Curveball
Currently a plus pitch, with plus-plus potential, his curveball sits at 79-83 mph with two-plane break and tight rotation. It can get slurvy at times, but still effective and generates swing and misses. Opposing hitters have a lot of trouble squaring up on the pitch, hitting the ball foul if they are able to make contact.
Easily his best offering, Hobgood’s curveball, by itself, is one of the best I’ve seen in a long time. However, his release point on the curveball is a bit different than on his fastball and change up, something I’ll get into in more detail below.
Changeup
While it’s an average pitch right now, I see a lot of potential in Hobgood’s changeup. His changeup sits in the 82-85 mph range, with some slight, late break, in on left handed hitters. In the GIF image on the right, you can see how it drops before it crosses the plate.
Hobgood’s still learning how to use this pitch effectively, as he still, somewhat, lacks the feel, or ability to command it within the zone. In high school, Hobgood’s curveball/fastball combo was enough to dominate lesser talent, meaning there was no need for his changeup.
Mechanics
With a smooth, clean windup, Hobgood has the mechanics you’d expect to see from a pitcher his size. In a very balanced power stance, Hobgood’s back leg is somewhat bent and his hands are together before he begins his delivery to the plate. As his leg begins to come down, he drops his hands, simultaneously, which allows for more than enough time to start his arm circle.
Hobgood’s large frame gives him the momentum needed to run his fastball up to 96 mph at times. With a loose, easy arm action, he throws from a 3/4 arm slot landing flat on his front foot showing excellent body control and a smooth overall delivery.
My main concern with Hobgood is that his release point and arm action on his curveball is different than his fastball and changeup. There’s more to pitching than velocity, movement and location. A starting pitcher must make each separate pitch look similar to all his other offerings.
| Curveball Release Point | Fastball Release Point |
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Hobgood throws his curveball from more of an overhand arm slot, and his fastball comes from more of a 3/4 arm slot. When throwing his curveball, his legs are slightly more bent, his upper body is closer to the ground and at more of an angle, around 45 degrees. While it’s not a huge differential, advanced hitters will be able to pick up on Hobgood’s curveball before he throws it.
Conclusions
While many people questioned the Orioles’ selection of Hobgood at #5 overall in 2009, the pick shouldn’t be as mind boggling as those people thought. Hobgood has legitimate top of the rotation potential.
With his weight problems, Hobgood is going to have to maintain conditioning throughout his career, a challenge most pitchers don’t have to face as extensively.
If he can’t refine his command, specifically his fastball, and doesn’t make the necessary improvements to his changeup, he looks like a #4-5 starter. If he does one, but not the other, he looks like a #3 starter. If Hobgood refines his command, making it above-average, and his changeup becomes above-average as well, he’s an easy #1-2 starter who will pile up innings and lead your rotation.
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Good piece, thanks for the information. Very detailed. Best case, Hobgood is a John Lackey/Matt Cain type. Although he looks more like a Kevin Millwood/Brad Penny type, which, would still be nice to have.
No problem, glad you enjoyed it. Lackey seems like a good comparison for Hobgood, both have nasty curves.
Can you say Sidney Ponson? LOL!
Haha! I have a feeling I’ll be seeing that comp a lot.
Thats the kind of piece i love. Glad i found this site
Thanks! Glad you liked it.
Excellent scouting report. I love how the video accompanies the text,gives the reader a nice visual to enhance your observations. Great job, Jordan!
Thanks Greg! I’ll be sure to include more video along with text in the future. Thanks for the comment + feedback!
Jordan,
I learned a lot from your piece on Hobgood and never really knew pitching could be so technical. Thanks for educating me in a way that’s easy for me to understand!
Thanks!
Another great scouting report. The gifs really made this a good piece to read, thanks.
Are you posting any other reports soon?
Jordan, I really enjoyed your report. As others have mentioned, your use of the video was very helpful and enhanced understanding your points. This was really great. How do you know when a pitcher is throwing a two seam fastball vs the four seam. Can you see this simply by watching the video? Also, is it difficult for a pitcher to change his release point? Could MLB batters distinguish between Matt’s pitches fairly easily based on his current mechanics?
Thanks, Bruce.
Four seam fastballs are usually 2-4 mph faster than a two seamer, and two seam fastballs have much more movement and sink. You should be able to see the difference in the two clips. The two seam fastball has some fading action in on right handed hitters and away from lefties.
Some pitcher are able to make adjustments better than others. But, it also depends on one team they are playing for. Different teams are more hesitant to tinker with mechanics than others.
Right now, he’s only pitching against minor league hitters meaning they don’t have the video or advanced scouting that they will have once he reaches the majors. I suspect that if he doesn’t change anything, yes, some players may be able to pick up whether he is about to throw a curveball or a fastball.
great report
Jordan…I saw this issue even before scrolling down. His slot is even different from the 2 seam and four seam. He fails to repeat his follow through on all pitches. This could indicate that he has small differences in his setup inlcuding glove height, distance from glove to chest and even bad higher level hitters can pick this up.
But… Even guys I played with in double AA could pick up pitches, but they still hit .200 and never advanced any higher. Every pitcher has tells, but if every hitter would exploit it they would all be hitting +.300.
His plant times very well with his release, which keeps momentum movement from placing stress on the arm.
His loading phase has the elbow below the shoulder plain and mimicks actions that are repeatable without placing stress on the shoulder.
His follow through get great momentum and downward force. Even though it is 3/4, he still gets on top of the ball. I would want him to make the perminate slot in his current curveball angle. This would promote a higher point of release to really work a down plane angle and get on top of hitters.
Watching this I have to give credit to his pitching coach. Whoever taught this kid watched hours of Roger Clemens as his planting, “W”, are very similar. He is worth the price of admission and tweaking a few things make me feel Jordan hit it right with this kid. His size and makeup could really make him a top or mid-rotation starter.
Sweet site. Go O’s
Great site Jordan,very well done.I’m still not sold on this guy though.I think that 91-93 mph on his four seemer is pretty low for a supposed power pitcher.I know the radar gun is’nt everything,but for where we took him in the draft it leaves me scratching my head a bit.Knowing how to pitch is definatley more important,and I heard his fast ball decribed as “heavy” but still 91-93 is very average.
Thanks, Dave. Of course this was based off of a spring training appearance, where everyone’s velocity is down. Apparently his velocity is still down this season, so it is somewhat concerning.
Jordan, That scouting report on Hobgood with the videos of each pitch is super! Can you do this for a few more pitchers who are Oriole prospects? I’d like to see a similiar report on Brent Allar, who really is fun to watch – he had four innings of no hit relief last night (7/6).
Thanks, Karl. I apologize for the delayed response, for some reason your comment was marked as spam (automatically). Unfortunately, I don’t have video of Allar from behind the plate. Allar is certainly fun to watch, when he’s on he’s special. I may write up a report like this one on Jake Cowan in the next couple weeks if I have some time.
Jordan, Jake hasn’t pitched since mid May. Are you aware of an upcoming return?
Haven’t heard a thing, which isn’t a good sign. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him miss the rest of the season. Has had elbow injuries in the past, but his current injury is a shoulder problem, I believe. Let me see if I can find the link.
Here’s the link:
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/2010/05/shorebirds_cowan_experiencing.html