This list was published before the 2010 season and runs 30 players deep. An updated list will be released before the MLB Draft.
1. Brian Matusz, LHP – I believe Matusz is the second best pitching prospect in baseball, only behind Stephen Strasburg. Matusz features four above-average pitches in his fastball, changeup, curveball and slider. The changeup is considered to be a plus-plus pitch. Matusz also features elite command/control and paired with his unique repertoire of pitches, Matusz looks like a future ace to me.
2. Zach Britton, LHP – Britton works with a very good slider/sinker combo. His slider is his out pitch while his superb groundball rate is a result of the sinker. Britton’s changeup is still a work in progress and he really needs it to become his true third pitch. If Britton can duplicate his 2009 season at Bowie, he should place himself into conversations when talking about baseball’s elite pitching prospects.
3. Josh Bell, 3B – The best bat in the system, Bell combines above-average power with a good eye at the plate. He still needs to work on his right-handed swing and may eventually hit left-handed full time. Bell works himself into hitter’s counts and has become a very good contact hitter. Combining his plus arm with average range, he is now an above-average defender at third.
4. Jake Arrieta, RHP – Arrieta’s stats from Norfolk show that he struggled while pitching there, but don’t let his numbers fool you. When Arrieta got promoted to Norfolk he ditched his curveball and focused mainly on his changeup. This inflated his numbers. Arrieta features a mid 90’s fastball and a slider that flashes plus. Arrieta’s control is what’s holding me back from considering him a frontline starter.
5. Brandon Erbe, RHP – If Erbe can stay healthy he has the potential to be a #2 starter in the bigs. Erbe’s fastball/slider would play against big league hitters right now out of the bullpen. Erbe will needs a true third pitch to stick as a starter, so refining his changeup will be a big part as to whether he is a starter or reliever.
6. Brandon Snyder, 1B – A catcher turned first baseman, Snyder has worked hard and is now an above-average defender. Snyder is a patient hitter and uses the whole field at the plate. Snyder is not your typical first baseman, as he only projects to hit around 15 home runs at the big league level. If not for his struggles at Norfolk in 2009. I believe Snyder would be attracting a lot more attention right now.
7. Matt Hobgood, RHP – Just 19 years old, Hobgood features a mid 90’s fastball and a plus curveball. What’s impressive about Hobgood is that even though he didn’t have his best stuff in 2009 with Bluefield, he still had a decent season and an impressive ground ball rate. Hobgood has the potential to be a #2 starter and will look to establish himself as one of the Orioles’ top three pitching prospects.
8. Kam Mickolio, RHP – With an impressive showing with the Orioles in 2009, Mickolio will try to establish himself as a key member of the Orioles’ bullpen. Mickolio features a high 90’s fastball and a slider that can be above-average at times. Mickolio was shut down at the end of the last two seasons and needs to prove he can stay healthy for a whole season.
9. Mychal Givens, SS – A supreme athlete, Givens has all the tools to become an all-star shortstop in the MLB. Givens has elite arm strength, and if you pair that with his above-average speed and range, you have a very good defensive shortstop. Once Givens fills out, he should have above average power. Givens is the type of athlete the Orioles have been looking for in their recent drafts.
10. Luis Lebron, RHP – Lebron received a lot of attention last year when he held opponents to a .137 batting average and struck out 91 batters in 60 innings. Lebron’s slider is an above-average pitch and his fastball sits in the mid 90’s. Lebron still struggles with control (33BB in 60 IP) but if he throws enough strikes he could be a future closer.
11. Caleb Joseph, C – Joseph’s impressive season at Frederick came winding down at the end of the year due to fatigue. Joseph is extremely athletic for a catcher, but is still improving his game calling and footwork behind the plate. Joseph makes solid contact at the plate and has some pop as well (12 HR in 09).
12. Ryan Berry, RHP – Like all Rice pitchers, Berry carries the tag of “injury risk”. When healthy, Berry features a low 90’s fastball, which he has excellent command of. Berry’s knuckle curve is a filthy pitch, a true out pitch. Berry should start 2010 with Frederick and could be at Bowie by the end of the season.
13. Xavier Avery, OF – Avery is the best athlete in the Orioles’ system, his speed is a plus-plus tool. He has not showed much power yet, but could hit for average power in the future. Avery held his own with Delmarva at only 19 years old. With another year under his belt, Avery should be ready for Frederick in 2010.
14. Brandon Waring, 1B/3B – Waring has more power than anyone else in the Orioles’ system. Waring’s swing can get long at times leading to tons of strikeouts. Waring doesn’t have a true defensive position and could end up as a DH. Don’t let his average at Frederick fool you, he’s not a great contact hitter.
15. Oliver Drake, RHP – Drake is a personal favorite. He has very good command of a low 90’s fastball and a slider that is plus at times. He still needs to improve his changeup if he wants to stick as a starter. Drake had a 3.38 ERA 23 games into the season but allowed 14 ER in his last two games, finishing the season with a 4.34 ERA. His stats don’t show his true talent.
16. Jake Cowan, RHP – Cowan is another personal favorite. Cowan has the potential for three plus pitches in his fastball, changeup and slider. In his brief stint with Aberdeen in 2009, Cowan recorded 27 strikeouts in 24 innings and had a 2.25 ERA. Cowan should start 2010 with Delmarva but should be at Frederick by the end of the year.
17. Brandon Cooney, RHP – Cooney pitched the first third of 2009 at Delmarva and had a 2.68 ERA there. After moving up to Frederick he only pitched better, registering a 0.60 ERA. Cooney has a mid 90’s fastball, which he compliments with an above-average slider, which could become a plus pitch. If Cooney continues to throw enough strikes he could become a very good set-up man.
18. L.J. Hoes, 2B – Like Avery, Hoes is one of the best athletes in the system. Along with his plus speed, Hoes is a very good contact hitter and has excellent patience at the plate. He is still somewhat new to second base, switching there after being drafted by the Orioles.
19. Troy Patton, LHP – I like to compare Patton to Brian Matusz because both of them flat out know how to pitch. Patton heavily relies on command of his low 90’s fastball and doesn’t have the stuff to blow hitters away. Patton has struggled to stay healthy in the past but was healthy for most of 2010. I still like Patton as a backend starter. I’m looking for him to rebound and show some of the promise he had when the Orioles first got him in the Tejada trade.
20. Cameron Coffey, LHP – The Orioles signed Coffey to a near 1 million dollar deal as a 22nd round pick in 2009. Coffey has lots of potential and could end up as a frontline starter. He didn’t make his debut in 2009 because he was still recovering from TJ surgery. Coffey should be ready to go for 2010 and I hope he returns with his mid 90’s fastball.
21. Michael Ohlman, C – Ohlman was an excellent over-slot draft pick for the Orioles in 2009. He currently plays catcher, but may not be able to stay there long term. Ohlman has plus power and could end up hitting 30+ home runs annually. Even with the defensive concerns, Ohlman’s bat should be able to play at any position.
22. Pedro Florimon Jr., SS – With Cesar Izturis at shortstop right now, Florimon is the best candidate to be Izturis’ successor. The Orioles added Florimon Jr. to their 40-man roster for 2010. Florimon has a plus arm and good range, but still makes a lot of throwing errors. Florimon struggles to make contact with quality breaking balls. He’s a plus runner and could hit for average power once he fills out.
23. Bobby Bundy, RHP – The Orioles signed Bundy to a $600,000 bonus after drafting him in the 8th round in 2008. Bundy has a nice frame at 6’2” and 215 pounds. He throws a mid 90’s fastball and his curve is a potential plus pitch and already impressive. If Bundy can stay healthy he has the chance to rocket up this list.
24. Jesse Beal, RHP – Beal sits in the low 90’s with his fastball but should add more velocity as he fills out his frame. Beal’s secondary pitches still have a long way to go but he has excellent command of his fastball, which will be a huge boost to his secondary pitches. He could be in for a breakout season in 2010.
25. Ronnie Welty, OF – Welty is a balanced hitter, with average power and contact skills. Welty needs to display more patience at the plate, and lay off pitches out of the zone. Welty is a good defender and has an above-average arm.
26. Tyler Townsend, 1B – The Orioles got their power bat when they drafted Townsend in the third round in 2009. Townsend is a monster on offense – hitting .434/.512/.858 with 24 home runs in 2009 at Florida International. Although his bat is great, Townsend has no defensive home and below average speed, which will likely limit him to playing only first base and designated hitter.
27. Tyler Henson, 3B – Henson features a unique set of tools for a third baseman. He has above-average speed and has at least 15+ stolen bases in each of three pro seasons. Henson also has some power potential and should become a better contact hitter in the future. Henson could become a very good utility man because he can play 1B, 2B, 3B, OF, and SS if needed. He has a plus arm but still has trouble making accurate throws from third base.
28. Billy Rowell, OF – Rowell has been a huge disappointment since the Orioles drafted him in the first round in 2006. Rowell still has plenty of raw power but he displays it in batting practice, not in games. Rowell has plus arm strength and has moved to right field after playing third base since the beginning of his career. Hopefully, Rowell can turn things around in 2010 and not have to live with the title of “bust”.
29. Matt Angle, OF – Angle is a speedy guy who makes the most out of his limited tool set. He gets on base, which somewhat makes up for having almost no power. Angle has very good plate discipline and is a patient hitter. He plays excellent defense in center field. Angle has pretty much filled out his frame and ‘is what he is’ at this point.
30. Kyle Hudson, OF – Not far behind Avery, Hudson should also be considered when talking about the systems top athletes. Hudson played wide receiver for Illinois in college. Hudson has plus speed, but is still learning how to use it effectively on the bases. Like Angle, Hudson relies on getting on base to make up for his lack of power.
